[minutes of internal morning meeting of SMM aluminum] Alumina market performance stalemate aluminum imports increased significantly compared with the same period last year

6.25 minutes of SMM internal aluminum morning meeting

Market: the US dollar continues to be dragged down by expectations of interest rate cuts, running around 96; against the backdrop of positive macro news, Lun Aluminum rebounded, closing overnight at US $1800 / ton, up US $32, or 1.81%. The overnight closing price of the internal market was at 13890 yuan / ton, up 60 yuan / ton from the daytime closing price. Macro: on July 1, there will be a new round of fee reduction measures with a scale of 300 billion, the scope of which will mainly involve administrative unit fees and operating service charges. Fundamentals: alumina market performance in the near future stalemate, few transactions, but electrolytic aluminum enterprises to increase the number of inquiries, price pressure is still greater. According to SMM statistics on June 24, the national electrolytic aluminum inventory dropped by 20, 000 tons to 1.061 million tons, with Wuxi and Hangzhou having the largest net destocking range. The total output increased slightly by 2500 tons in Foshan and Changzhou. China's import of waste aluminum in May was 177200 tons, up 57.8 percent from a year earlier, mainly due to a small base in May last year and a snatching export effect in June this year.

Spot: yesterday, the spot transaction price in Shanghai was between 13820 yuan / ton and 13840 yuan / ton, which was 10 yuan / ton for Pingshui in that month, nearly 40 yuan / ton lower than last Friday, and the holder was still actively shipping, the quotation was strong, at the same time, due to the fall in aluminum price, the enthusiasm of some traders to buy goods was also obviously improved, and the trading between the two sides was active, and the inquiry quotation was positive. But downstream is replenished on demand on Monday. Conclusion: the expected part of the fundamental pressure in the short period is digested by the falling aluminum price before. In the long period, we can try the view of long-term multiple orders in the light position layout by maintaining the main contract below 13800.