[daily Review of SMM Black Futures] 201906: shipping volume is reduced to hedge the resumption of production in the mining area, and the ore opens low and walks high and then brushes a new high.

In terms of volume and price, RB1910 rose 55 yuan / ton to close at 3825 yuan / ton; HC1910 rose 58 yuan / ton to close at 3711 yuan / ton; I1909 rose 24.5 yuan / ton to close at 831 yuan / ton; J1909 rose 10.5 yuan / ton to close at 2076.5 yuan / ton. In terms of position data, RB1910 handled 3.77 million transactions, an increase of 70900 to 2.67 million; I1909, 3.11 million, an increase of 77100 to 1.95 million; in terms of capital flows, the net inflow of RB1910 funds today was 331 million yuan; and the net inflow of I1909 funds was 879 million yuan. Viewpoint: high shock. Before yesterday's offer, VALE's official website announced that the local court had approved a request for resumption of production in its Brucutu mining area, so the remaining 20 million tons of wet separation capacity in the mining area would resume production within 72 hours, after 10 million tons of dry separation capacity had returned to production. Affected by the news, the ore opened sharply lower, but then under the influence of Rio Tinto's target of reducing the shipping volume of the Pilbala mining area, it quickly rebounded. Then, the dollar index weakened, lost 97, commodities were again boosted, I1909 contract intraday high of 837, intraday amplitude as high as 6.2%. Under the rigid gap, the strong pattern of iron ore has not changed; on the steel side, although today's inventory data show that it is still accumulating, but the growth rate has slowed. Driven by the sharp rise in ore, but also showed an upward trend of warehouse increase; coke although the weak spot operation, more than 100 price reduction has been implemented on the ground, steel mills to crack down on coke price intention is obvious, but other black varieties of higher coke price to form a certain support. Generally speaking, at present, the macro level has warmed up, environmental protection has continued to limit production, and demand has not been worried about a cliff-like decline for the time being, and it is still treated as a bullish train of thought. However, after a sharp rally, there is a short-term shock to digest the need for early increases, prices are expected to run mainly to shock tomorrow. Strategy: RB1910 contract range (3650, 3900); I1909 contract range (750860), multiple orders can be reduced on high, after falling back, rolling operation. Disclaimer: this information comes from a statistical arbitrage model based on historical data, and all conclusions are based on reliable and publicly available information. The SMM quantification team is not responsible for any losses that may be caused by all information. We recommend that investors independently evaluate specific investments and strategies. Investors are also encouraged to seek advice from professional financial advisers. This information does not provide a tailored investment strategy.