Macro Roundup (May 18)

SHANGHAI, May 18 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

As the US Treasury yield rose and with positive US economic data and a weakened euro, the US dollar hovered at five-month highs and closed 0.1% higher at 93.48 overnight.

The US 10-year Treasury note yield hit a multiyear high Wednesday, topping 3.1% for the first time since July 8, 2011. The yield on the two-year Treasury note also notched a new high of 2.6%, the highest since August 11, 2008.

Base metals mostly inched up as LME lead gained over 1%. Nickel rose nearly 1%, and zinc and copper went up slightly. LME aluminium fell nearly 1% as inventories grew, and tin edged down. SHFE base metals, except for zinc and tin, rose across the board with nickel closing 0.7% higher, and lead gaining 0.69%.

The US initial unemployment claims for the week ended May 12 stood at 222,000, higher from the expected 215,000. 

However, the four-week moving average of initial claims, viewed as a better measure of labour market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, fell 2,750 to 213,250 last week, the lowest since December 1969. 

For the week ended May 5, the continued claims for unemployment benefits registered 1.71 million, down from the expected 1.78 million, and fell to a record low since December 1973. 

The declines reflect further tightening in the labour market, and also validate economists' expectations that wage growth will speed up in the second half of the year.

Day ahead

The eurozone trade balance in March is the key factor to watch today.

The US dollar is expected to hover at highs in the near term, while base metals are likely to consolidate at their current levels. Investors will take more cues from the development of the US-Sino trade talks. 

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