Macro Roundup (Mar 1)

SHANGHAI, Mar 1 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macro-economic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

As the US dollar continued to go up, with the dollar index hitting a post-Chinese New Year high at 90.62, and China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) failed to meet expectations, we saw a big slump in base metals futures except for SHFE aluminium. LME copper slid over 1% to the lowest level since February 13, while lead dropped close to 3% and zinc slipped over 1%.

The core eurozone consumer price index (CPI) stayed firm with some 1% growth, suggesting that inflation pressure is increasing.

The US real GDP and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) in the fourth quarter rose 2.5% and 1.9%, respectively, within market expectations. While US economic growth was slower than in the third quarter last year, it is likely to speed up with the stimulus of the $150-million tax cut.

However, the US pending home sales index failed to meet expectations and touched a three-year low at a negative 4.7%. This reflected little confidence in the property market, while the mortgage interest rates also hit a four-year high.

Crude oil and gasoline inventory released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) grew higher than expected while the stock of refined oil went down. The country’s crude oil production has reached a record high at 10.28 million barrels/day.

A Bloomberg analyst said that US oil production will grow 13% this year and that the increasing demand in the upcoming summer is likely to push up gasoline prices.

Today

Manufacturing PMIs for Europe and US, as well as the unemployment rate in the eurozone, are key factors to watch today.

As a result of a stronger US dollar, base metals are expected to edge down and the trend may continue in the short term.

The eurozone manufacturing PMI went down slightly in January but remained above 58 for three consecutive months, showing strong momentum of recovery.

The US PMI also fell slightly in January but the manufacturing sector is expected to maintain the fast-growing rate since 2017.

Unemployment in the eurozone stayed at an eight-year low while the US job market stabilised.

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