WBMS: January to September 2017 METALS BALANCES

SHANGHAI, Nov.23 (SMM)－
 

January to September 2017 METALS BALANCES


Primary aluminium market in deficit in January to September 2017

The calculated market balance for primary aluminium for January to September 2017 was a deficit of 1463 kt which follows a deficit of 770 kt recorded for the whole of 2016. Demand for primary aluminium for January to September 2017 was 45.49 million tonnes 1877 kt more than the first nine months of 2016. Production in January to September 2017 rose by 1130 kt compared with 2016. Producer stock data is no longer published and total reported stocks fell by 5 kt during September and at the end of the month were 2279 kt which equated to 14 days demand and compares with 2761 kt at the end of 2016. Total stocks held in the four exchanges in London, Shanghai, USA and Tokyo were 1848 kt at the end of September 2017 which was 476 kt below the December 2016 total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for large unreported stock changes especially those held in Asia.

Overall, global production rose in January to September 2017 by 2.6 per cent compared with the first nine months of 2016. Chinese output was estimated at 24661 kt and this currently accounts for just over 56 per cent of the world production total. Chinese apparent demand was 5.2 per cent higher than 2016. Chinese net exports were 275 kt in January to September and net exports of unwrought aluminium for the whole of 2016 were 255 kt. Net exports of aluminium semi manufactures from China rose from 2806 kt in January to September 2016 to 2916 kt in the first nine months of 2017.

Production in the EU28 increased by 0.2 per cent and NAFTA output fell by 2.2 per cent. EU28 demand was 132 kt higher than the comparable 2016 total. Global demand rose by 4.3 per cent during January to September compared with the levels recorded one year previously.

In September 2017, primary aluminium production was 4665.0 kt and consumption was 4769.7 kt. 

Copper market records tiny surplus in January to September 2017

The copper market recorded a surplus of 20 kt in January to September 2017 which follows a deficit of 102 kt in the whole of 2016. Reported stocks fell during September and closed 40 kt higher than at the end of December 2016. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes, particularly in the Chinese government stockpile.

World mine production in January to September 2017 was 15.05 million tonnes which was 0.5 per cent lower than in the same period in 2016. Global refined production for January to September 2017 was 17.64 million tonnes up 1.3 per cent compared with the previous year with a significant increase recorded in China (up 385 kt) and a reduction in Chile (down 189 kt).

Global consumption for January to September 2017 was 17.62 million tonnes compared with 17.66 million tonnes for the same months of 2016. Chinese apparent consumption in January to September 2017 rose by 19 kt to 8757 kt compared to the same months of 2016 and represented just under 50 per cent of global demand. EU28 production rose by 11 per cent and demand was 2605 kt, 1.3 per cent above the January to September 2016 total. 

In September 2017, refined copper production was 2011.5 kt and consumption was 2035.2 kt.

Lead market records deficit in January to September 2017

The lead market was in deficit by 318 kt in January to September 2017 which follows a deficit of 154 kt recorded in the whole of 2016. Total stocks at the end of September were 62 kt lower than at the end of 2016. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes. 

World refined production during January to September 2017 from both primary and secondary sources was 8747 kt which was 9.8 per cent higher than in the comparable months of 2016. Global demand was 661 kt above the comparable period in 2016 and represented just over 42 per cent of the global total. For the USA, apparent demand has increased by 286 kt for January to September 2017 compared to the first nine months of 2016.

In September 2017, refined lead production was 987.7 kt and consumption was 1009.8 kt. 

Zinc market records deficit in January to September 2017

The zinc market was in deficit by 504 kt during January to September 2017 which compares with a deficit of 202 kt recorded in the whole of the previous year. Reported stocks rose by 6 kt during September. LME stocks rose by 9 kt in September and ended the month 175 kt lower than at the end of 2016. LME stocks represent just under 35 per cent of the global total. Chinese demand fell by 0.1 per cent compared with the previous year. Production of locally refined metal in China fell by 2.8 per cent compared with 2016. Chinese imports of mostly special high grade metal were 77 kt in September which brought the year to date figure to 391 kt, 41 kt lower than in January to September 2016. 

Global refined production rose by 0.1 per cent and consumption was 2.7 per cent higher than the levels recorded one year earlier. Japanese demand was, at 393 kt, 13.5 per cent above the equivalent total for January to September 2016.

World demand was 279 kt higher than for January to September 2016. Chinese apparent demand was 4945 kt which is just over 46 per cent of the global total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.

In September 2017 slab zinc production was 1173.8 kt and consumption 1227.8 kt. 

Nickel market records deficit in January to September 2017

The Nickel market was in deficit during January to September 2017 with apparent demand exceeding production by 46.6 kt. In the whole of 2016 the calculated deficit was 68.2 kt. Reported stocks held in the LME at the end of September 2017 were 12.4 kt higher than at the end of the previous year with most of the increases recorded in Asia. Refined production in January to September 2017 totalled 1329.2 kt and demand was 1375.8 kt.

Mine production during January to September was 1448.1 kt, 47 kt above the comparable 2016 total. Chinese smelter/refinery output decreased by 24 kt compared with 2016 and apparent demand was 153 kt lower than in the previous year due to reduced imports of Nickel metal from Russia.

World apparent demand was 85 kt lower than the previous year. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes

In September 2017, nickel smelter/refinery production was 169.3 kt and consumption was 175.1 kt. 

Tin market records deficit in January to September 2017

The tin market recorded a deficit of 5.8 kt during January to September 2017 and there were no DLA deliveries during the period. Total reported stocks fell by 0.9 kt during September and ended the period 6.4 kt higher than December 2016. 

Global reported production of refined metal was up by 18 kt, compared with January to September 2016 total. Production in Asia was 21.4 kt higher than the January to September 2016 total. Apparent demand in China was 4.3 per cent lower than the equivalent period of the previous year.

Global tin demand during January to September 2017 was 279.1 kt which was 1.7 per cent below the comparable period of 2016. Japanese consumption was 21.8 kt which was 8.5 per cent higher than the comparable total for 2016.

In September 2017, refined production was 29.5 kt and consumption was 30.7 kt


Dated 22nd November 2017


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