NBS: China Aluminum Output Grows Notably in June

[Geopolitical Risk Premium Exits Market, Aluminum Prices Under Short-Term Pressure and Volatility] On the macro front, the US and Iran have completed signing an electronic MOU. Expectations of geopolitical easing continue to materialize, market panic over the Middle East conflict continues to fade, and the geopolitical risk premium for commodities has weakened significantly. US May CPI rose 4.2% YoY, hitting a three-year high, while core CPI also strengthened. The market continues to bet on the Fed restarting rate hikes within the year, and expectations of tightening liquidity continue to suppress metal valuations. On the fundamentals side, the Middle East conflict caused involuntary production cuts in overseas aluminum capacity. Expectations of a global supply deficit continue to widen, and coupled with expectations of rising energy costs, this provides strong bottom support for LME aluminum. China’s inventory destocking trend has been established, and the destocking logic continues to be realized. The rebound in the proportion of liquid aluminum, support from export demand, and supply normalization compressing aluminum ingot formation—these three fundamental factors jointly drive the continuation of destocking. SMM maintains its forecast that inventory will fall to around 1.28 million mt by late June, and may further approach 1.2 million mt by end-June/early July, bringing some support to aluminum prices. However, the pressure from high domestic inventory remains relatively pronounced. Coupled with the currently bearish macro sentiment dominating the market, short-term domestic aluminum prices are mainly in the doldrums, with volatile adjustments.

Selon des médias étrangers, sur la base de demandes de plusieurs entreprises, dont Hindalco Industries et SRF Altech, l'Inde a décidé de prolonger jusqu'au 15 décembre 2026 les droits antidumping visant les feuilles d'aluminium d'une épaisseur maximale de 80 microns importées de Chine, de Malaisie, de Thaïlande et d'Indonésie. Auparavant, le 29 septembre 2025, la Direction générale des recours commerciaux (DGTR) du ministère du Commerce et de l'Industrie indien avait engagé un réexamen à l'expiration des droits concernant ces importations en provenance de ces quatre pays.

[SMM Aluminum Flash] Le stock de lingots d'aluminium secondaire dans les principales zones de consommation en Chine s'élevait à 24 600 tonnes, en baisse de 570 tonnes par rapport à la veille, le rythme de déstockage s'accélérant.