SMM Weekly Price Outlook for Base Metals on LME and SHFE (Jun. 12-16, 2017)

Vedanta has moved forward with its long-planned demerger, creating separate listed entities for copper, zinc, aluminum, oil and gas, and power businesses. The company said the restructuring will allow each unit to pursue independent growth and investment strategies. The move is expected to strengthen the development of India's copper industry.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SHFE copper prices are expected to rise intraday and remain at a relatively high level. Coupled with the futures contract rollover, trading activity is likely to be muted, reflecting that the current price level is significantly suppressing real demand. After the rollover, the market will officially price around the 2607 contract, and close attention should be paid to the outflow of unmatched warrants. However, open interest for the SHFE copper 2606 contract currently stands at approximately 5,500 lots, indicating limited delivery participation. The concentrated release of warrants is therefore expected to exert relatively limited additional pressure on spot discounts. Supported by delivery-related dynamics, Shanghai spot copper discounts did not see a sharp decline. But if copper prices remain at current highs and demand fails to improve effectively, spot premiums may come under downward pressure.

Today in North China, spot #1 copper cathode prices against the front-month contract were reported at discounts of 190–130 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 160 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average transaction price stood at 104,580 yuan/mt, down 1,025 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.