SHANGHAI, Feb. 16 (SMM) – 55% Chinese copper producers expect LME copper to stabilize at USD 4,520-4,580/mt this week and SHFE 1604 copper to consolidate at RMB 35,500-36,000/mt.
US dollar registered a large loss during Chinese New Year holiday and Yellen will unlikely give any clear attitude, which will pose neutral impact on dollar. Also, both LME and SHFE copper move between moving averages and market activities stay tepid.
27% market players see LME copper to grow above USD 4,600/mt this week and SHFE 1604 copper return above RMB 36,000/mt. Global risks were released during Chinese New Year holiday. The S&P 500 Index touched a 2-year low of 1810.1 and Japanese shares plummeted 11.1% in a week. Three major shares in Europe all tumbled over 5%. Chinese shares went up after a low opening prices following Chinese New Year holiday, boding well for base metals. Slump in US dollar also support copper prices. Copper smelters begin to restart operation this week and markets expect the coming of peak season. The NPC and CPPCC is to be held in March, fueling expectation for pro-growth measures.
18% investors point out that LME copper will fall below USD 4,520/mt this week and SHFE 1604 copper will drop to RMB 35,000/mt. Overall bearish sentiment loom market. Recent rally in crude oil prices was due to short-covering and news of output cut by oil producer rather than real improvement in fundamentals. Thus, it remains to be seen whether rally in crude prices will be sustainable. Most people expect crude prices to fall back at a fast pace. According to CFTC report, shot positions on COMEX market grew by over 4,000 with a sharp decrease in longs, weighing on copper prices.