SHANGHAI, Jun. 9 (SMM) – In Shanghai spot tin market, mainstream traded prices were RMB 113,300-115,000/mt on Monday morning, but prices rose by RMB 200-300/mt in the afternoon. Downstream demand picked up. Supply of goods from Jiangxi and Yunnan was tight. Goods from Yunnan Tin Group traded at RMB 114,500-115,000/mt.
SMM surveyed market players in domestic tin industry.
55% of them expect tin prices to hold stable this week: falling LME tin inventories will allow LME tin prices to hold stable. But a lack of other positive news will deprive LME tin of upward momentum. LME tin is expected to hover around USD 15,400/mt. SHFE 1507 tin contract will also stabilize between RMB 114,000-115,000/mt due to a lack of speculative activity. In domestic spot market, limited supply will help spot prices stabilize at RMB 113,000-115,000/mt. Although some smelters will resumed some production, market supply did not recover immediately. Some distributors of Yunxi brand tin said inventories have run out and new goods have yet to arrive.
The rest 45% are bearish: the traditional off-season is nearing, so prices in domestic spot market might fall to RMB 112,000-112,500/mt. Fear of interest rate hike will keep the US dollar index elevated, which will leave LME tin vulnerable to losses. Speculative activity triggered by production cuts at smelters has faded, so SHFE tin might fall to test support at RMB 112,500/mt.