Se espera que se acelere la emisión posterior de bonos de propósito especial

Last week, ferrous metals showed a narrow consolidation pattern overall. Among them, coking coal and coke were hit by expectations of the "stable coal production and supply guarantee" policy from three ministries, posting larger declines and hitting new monthly lows; HRC and rebar prices were basically flat; iron ore saw its weekly average edge up MoM, supported by ocean freight rates. The core contradiction remained concentrated in the carbon element: steel mill losses widened, daily hot metal production continued to decline, and steel mills' desire to bargain down raw material prices strengthened; meanwhile, coking coal weakened first under the impact of stable production and supply guarantee policy expectations, and the loosening cost side dragged down the overall valuation of ferrous metals. From a data perspective, HRC spot prices in US dollar terms fell $4/mt MoM, export prices remained relatively firm, sheets & plates export prices showed mixed performance, long steel product prices rose $1-4/mt MoM, and export margins improved slightly. Looking ahead, on the supply side, steel mill hot metal production is expected to continue declining, raw materials are likely to remain under pressure, coking coal and coke may still weaken under the weight of policy expectations, and cost support will loosen further. On the demand side, the low production and low inventory pattern in steel provides some bottom support for prices, and with domestic demand maintaining resilience and overseas demand expected to gradually recover and drive steel export growth, overall steel demand remains on an improving track, with support below prices. On the macro front, repeated tightening expectations outside China are creating periodic pressure on risk assets, market sentiment is unlikely to recover significantly, and price fluctuation space is limited. Overall, with bullish and bearish factors intertwined, ferrous metals lack a trend driver in the short term and are expected to continue consolidating in a narrow range. Export prices will also show a consolidation pattern.

Según los datos de monitoreo de la Academia China de Índices, hasta el 24 de septiembre se habían emitido en todo el país más de 870 políticas relacionadas con el sector inmobiliario, de las cuales más de 280 se publicaron en el tercer trimestre, continuando la tendencia de alta frecuencia en la emisión de políticas observada en el primer semestre. Las políticas locales se centraron principalmente en tres direcciones: activar la demanda, optimizar la oferta y la renovación urbana, e incluyeron principalmente la optimización de políticas restrictivas, ajustes en las políticas del fondo de previsión para vivienda, la emisión de subsidios para la compra de viviendas, la revitalización del parque de viviendas existente, la construcción de "viviendas de calidad" y la implementación de políticas de apoyo a la renovación urbana.