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According to SMM research, Iranian steel export quotes held steady to higher this week, with supply tightening replacing demand as the primary market driver. In semi-finished and flat products, billet export offers rose to 410–415 USD/tonne FOB, with at least 10,000 tonnes of 3SP billet sold to the Gulf at 413 USD/tonne FOB; power and gas shortages forced several mills to cut output, undergo maintenance, or retain billets for internal rolling, while procurement difficulties in ferroalloys, refractories, and coking coal extended delivery lead times to 45–60 days; Iran Mercantile Exchange (IME) billet prices surged 14% WoW, and 61,000 tonnes of slab traded with prices also up 14%, as robust domestic demand crowded out export allocations; executable slab export levels stood at 405–410 USD/tonne FOB against mill target prices of 430–435 USD/tonne FOB, prompting one mill to withdraw offers; October HRC cargoes to Iraq traded at 545–560 USD/tonne FCA border. In long products, rebar export quotes shifted upward alongside domestic prices to 455–477 USD/tonne FCA border, while wire rod was quoted at 510–530 USD/tonne FCA. Regarding logistics and regional markets, freight from Bandar Abbas to Oman and the UAE hovered at 17–20 USD/tonne (stems under 5,000 tonnes); while US enforcement persisted alongside statements ruling out military action prior to midterms, Iran indicated the Strait of Hormuz could reopen within seven days under fulfilled conditions, and the free-market Rial hit a new record low; in the Gulf, Dubai imported HRC held flat at 590 USD/tonne CFR. Looking ahead to next week, supply contraction will bolster export quotes, though logistics bottlenecks will cap transaction volumes, maintaining a range-bound posture with a strong bias.

According to SMM research, weak domestic demand persisted in the Turkish steel market this week, with long products leading price declines while flat steel and semi-finished products moved sideways. In the long products segment, domestic rebar prices fell 10 USD/tonne WoW to 615 USD/tonne EXW (excl. VAT), Iskenderun trader quotes dropped to 610 USD/tonne EXW, and Marmara mills followed down by 5–10 USD/tonne to 630–640 USD/tonne EXW, with some traders lowering cash buying baselines to 600 USD/tonne EXW; the liquidation of over 100 investment funds in September tightened market liquidity and suppressed construction steel demand, while rebar export quotes held flat at 615 USD/tonne FOB amid sluggish trading and new export constraints following a US administrative review preliminary dumping margin of 13.11% on two Turkish mills. In the flat steel segment, HRC export quotes held flat at 610 USD/tonne FOB as European buyers withdrew customs clearances following quota exhaustion, domestic quotes stood flat at 620 USD/tonne EXW with frozen transactions, and import quotes held at 555 USD/tonne CFR. In semi-finished steel and logistics, imported billet stood at 520 USD/tonne CFR with no new post-holiday offers from China, local billet held at 570 USD/tonne EXW, and Black Sea billet rose 10 USD/tonne WoW to 470 USD/tonne FOB with virtually no transactions; vessel sinking and attack incidents in the Black Sea on October 5 and 6 heightened logistics risks for rebar exports to Romania and scrap imports. Looking ahead to next week, with both domestic and export demand remaining weak alongside rising logistics risks, the market is expected to remain range-bound with a weak bias.

Según la investigación de SMM, los precios europeos de HRC convergieron entre el norte y el sur esta semana, mientras que el mercado de importación se tensó aún más bajo restricciones de cuotas y aranceles. En productos planos, los precios domésticos de HRC EXW del noroeste de Europa subieron 2 EUR/tonelada intermensual hasta 731 EUR/tonelada EXW (818 USD/tonelada EXW), con las acerías buscando un aumento adicional de 10 EUR/tonelada para los programas de producción de diciembre, un centro de servicio adquiriendo 500 toneladas a 750–760 EUR/tonelada entregado, y una acería integrada alemana retirándose temporalmente del mercado spot. El HRC italiano cayó 4 EUR/tonelada intermensual hasta 734 EUR/tonelada EXW (821 USD/tonelada EXW); a pesar de las paradas en curso del alto horno de ADI, los descuentos selectivos de las acerías para asegurar volumen llevaron a un acuerdo de 1.000 toneladas a 750 EUR/tonelada entregado, reduciendo la diferencia Norte-Sur a 3 EUR/tonelada. En el frente de importación, con las cuotas específicas por país de Turquía agotadas y derechos antidumping provisionales esperados en torno al 15%, los compradores retiraron masivamente las solicitudes de despacho; las cuotas indias se agotaron por completo el 8 de octubre, y mientras las ofertas al norte de Europa subieron a 750–760 USD/tonelada CFR, las contraofertas de los compradores se situaron en solo 700 USD/tonelada CFR, mientras que otros orígenes asiáticos se cotizaron a 760–780 EUR/tonelada DDP (850–873 USD/tonelada DDP). En productos largos y recubiertos, la barra corrugada italiana se mantuvo estable en 725 EUR/tonelada EXW, el alambrón cayó 15 EUR/tonelada hasta 715 EUR/tonelada EXW, y la palanquilla importada subió 5 USD/tonelada hasta 585 USD/tonelada CFR Italia. De cara a la próxima semana, la escasa oferta de importación y las subidas de precios de las acerías respaldarán las cotizaciones, pero la débil demanda de los usuarios finales limitará el potencial alcista, manteniendo los precios en un rango estable en niveles altos.