Overnight copper prices extended their decline as bears added positions; spot copper supply is tight, and suppliers continue to hold prices firm [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary]

2026.6.11 Thursday
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,452/mt, initially fluctuated downward to a low of $13,395/mt, then its price center gradually moved up to a high of $13,608.5/mt, before pulling back again and finally closing at $13,449/mt, down 0.81%. Trading volume reached 24,800 lots, and open interest stood at 267,000 lots, an increase of 976 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bearish positioning. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 103,500 yuan/mt, dipped to 103,480 yuan/mt early in the session, then fluctuated upward to a high of 104,340 yuan/mt, before its price center moved downward, moved sideways near the close, and finally settled at 103,650 yuan/mt, down 0.79%. Trading volume was 39,700 lots, and open interest was 157,000 lots, a decrease of 3,255 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bullish liquidation.
[SMM Copper Morning Briefing] News:
(1) On Wednesday, June 10, Central Asia Metals said copper production at its Kounrad ore mine in central Kazakhstan totaled 5,141 mt as of end-May. The company said the average selling price of copper was $13,076/mt as of end-May. The mine’s 2026 copper production guidance is 12,000-13,000 mt, while zinc production guidance at the SaSa ore mine is 18,000-20,000 mt. The company said that as temperatures recover, the dump leach operation at Kounrad is positively affected, so H2 copper production is typically higher than H1.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On June 10, the early morning session of the SHFE copper 2606 contract opened higher and held steady. It opened at 103,650 yuan/mt, rose to a high of 104,260 yuan/mt, then pulled back slightly, mostly trading between 103,950 yuan/mt and 104,200 yuan/mt, and closed at 104,010 yuan/mt. The inter-month contango spread for the prompt month versus the next ranged from 70 yuan/mt to 10 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2606 contract fluctuated between a loss of 350 yuan/mt and a loss of 280 yuan/mt. Approaching delivery, the inter-month contango held in the 70-10 yuan/mt range, suppliers were optimistic about near-term premiums and held back from selling, so standard-quality copper at a discount of 20 yuan/mt was quickly snapped up early in the session, and it became difficult to find cheap cargoes. On the demand side, downstream buyers showed limited acceptance of the current premium quotes, mostly buying on a need-to basis with little willingness to chase higher prices. Non-registered copper discounts remained at 200-180 yuan/mt, indicating overall consumption support was not strong. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between delivery-driven price support and limited downstream acceptance, SHFE spot copper quotes against the 2606 contract are expected to maintain the current pattern today, with the premium center possibly edging slightly higher.
(2) Guangdong: On June 10, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 160 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 130 yuan/mt, up 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 70 yuan/mt, up 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 104,210 yuan/mt, down 65 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 104,135 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, with inventory near a new low for the year, suppliers held prices significantly firmer, and overall trading was moderate.
(3) Imported Copper: On June 10, the average warrant price fell $5/mt from the previous trading day to $59/mt (price range: $54-64/mt); the average B/L price fell $4/mt from the previous trading day to $61/mt (price range: $55-67/mt); the average price for EQ copper (CIF B/L) fell $4/mt from the previous trading day to $29/mt (price range: $24-34/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving from mid-to-late June to early July.
(4) Secondary Copper: As of 11:30 AM on June 10, the futures closing price was 104,010 yuan/mt, up 80 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average spot premiums stood at 20 yuan/mt, up 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Secondary copper raw material prices remained flat MoM on the day. The sales sentiment index for secondary copper raw materials rose to 2.56, and the procurement sentiment index rose to 2.38. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,739 yuan/mt, up 95 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 780 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, many secondary copper rod enterprises reported that copper prices were trending weakly, with their quotes mostly below market prices; they were still able to purchase in small volumes. Meanwhile, secondary copper raw material traders adopted a rapid turnover strategy over the past two days, selling bare bright copper at as little as 50 yuan/mt above the purchase price to ensure cash flow recovery, enabling them to quickly replenish low-priced feedstock from the market.
Prices: On the macro front, the US military struck Iran for a second consecutive day, with the US Secretary of Defense stating that key facilities would be bombed; President Trump, who had ordered strikes on power plants and bridges, warned that Iran would pay a price for delays. Trump also said that an agreement was essentially negotiated and only needed Iran’s signature, but the deal was delayed due to two new demands: Iran must dilute its enriched uranium within 60 days and pledge not to charge transit fees. Meanwhile, Israel was reportedly preparing to strike Iran again. In addition, the US May CPI rose 4.2% YoY, hitting a three-year high. Due to tensions in the Middle East, the US dollar index rebounded back above the 100 mark, weighing on copper prices. On the fundamentals side, the supply of low-priced available goods remained scarce as suppliers held prices firm and held back from selling, with supply of high-quality copper staying tight, creating an overall structurally tight pattern; the demand side, though stimulated to release some rigid demand by the pullback in copper prices, remained relatively weak overall. Taken together, it is expected that copper prices today will move sideways and fluctuate downward.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM]