Tin prices are caught in a tug-of-war between support from overseas demand expectations and weak domestic spot buying [SMM Tin Morning Briefing]

SMM Tin Morning Briefing for June 8, 2026

During the past week, on the international macro front, the global semiconductor industry chain continued to release positive signals. STMicroelectronics announced its second price hike this year, highlighting cost-side pressure. Microsoft upgraded its quantum chip and accelerated the commercialization process. SpaceX, with a valuation of $1.77 trillion, is about to go public, and together with Tesla and others, advanced the site selection for the Terafab chip plant. These moves reinforced long-term expectations for tin solder demand in the high-end chip sector. On the other hand, a US industry coalition issued a supply chain risk warning on the memory chip shortage triggered by AI. Data from CPCA showed that April new energy vehicle sales remained on a YoY decline. Macro sentiment remained relatively buoyant amid mixed factors. China's tin market presented a pattern of generally stable supply with slight strength and cautious demand due to high prices. In June, most smelters maintained steady production. Ore supply saw no notable disruptions, and the supply of refined tin remained stable. On the demand side, downstream solder and processing enterprises generally adopted a purchase-on-order strategy. Absolute high prices continued to curb restocking willingness, and social inventory digestion was slow. This week, the futures price center rose initially but pulled back later. At the start of the week, prices surged above 450,000 yuan/mt, after which spot trades quickly cooled. Only sporadic rigid-demand purchases were made at lower levels. Although suppliers' premium quotes eased, they did little to stimulate actual transactions. The pullback in the second half of the week also failed to effectively spark significant trading volumes. The stalemate pattern of high prices deterring buyers persisted throughout the week. Looking ahead to the coming week, short-term tin prices will be tugged between support from overseas demand expectations and weak domestic spot absorption. Prices are expected to stay high with wild swings. Market participants should be alert to the risk of a futures pullback. Focus on the window for restocking rigid demand downstream and changes in macro sentiment. In terms of trading strategies, it is recommended to remain cautious, stay on the sidelines, or adopt a light-position swing approach.