[SMM Analysis] The periodic recovery in transactions is unsustainable, and stainless steel inventory ends its destocking trend with a slight rise.
[SMM Analysis] Phased Trade Recovery Proves Unsustainable, Stainless Steel Inventory Ends Destocking and Edges Higher
SMM, June 4 – This week, social inventory of stainless steel ended its previous streak of destocking, posting a slight buildup. Total inventory at the two major hubs, Wuxi and Foshan, edged higher, rising from 936,300 mt on May 28, 2026 to 940,400 mt on June 4, up 0.44% WoW, marking a shift from destocking to accumulation.
This week, SS futures staged a phase rally driven by macro tailwinds. The short-term strengthening of the futures market once boosted trading sentiment and triggered a phased recovery in spot transactions. However, the rally lacked sustainability; after futures pulled back, spot transactions quickly returned to mediocre levels. The market has now officially entered the traditional consumption off-season, and downstream end-use purchasing demand is gradually weakening. Even as steel mills proactively offered price concessions to sell and accelerated goods circulation, end-user purchasing willingness has yet to see a material improvement. Meanwhile, overall production schedules at steel mills remain high, and the support from raw material costs for spot prices continues to weaken. The supply-demand easing pattern is becoming increasingly prominent, and multiple factors jointly pushed inventory to shift from decline to growth this week.
Overall, the weakening of end-use demand during the off-season, combined with high production schedules at mills, was the core reason for the slight inventory buildup this week. Relying solely on short-term impulse rallies in futures to provide phased boosts to spot shipments cannot reverse the trend of inventory accumulation. On the supply side, there are currently no large-scale production cut measures implemented at steel mills; high production schedules are expected to persist in the near term, keeping market supply releases ample. Currently, market trading sentiment is cautious; industry participants' confidence in the market outlook is gradually declining, and they are adopting a wait-and-see operation...