According to the OECD's latest Steel Outlook 2026,
global excess steel production capacity is projected to reach 745 million tonnes by 2028 — surpassing total OECD steel output by 319 million tonnes.
Planned new capacity additions of 139 million tonnes between 2025 and 2028 represent a 5.7% increase, while demand is forecast to grow at only
around 0.9% annually, widening the supply-demand gap. Most new capacity is being built outside OECD countries,
frequently with government support — in 2024, Chinese steelmakers received subsidies equivalent to 15 times more relative to total
assets than producers elsewhere. OECD member capacity contracted overall, with the UK seeing the sharpest decline at 39.7% between 2021 and 2025,
followed by Japan at 7.2%. Export restrictions on scrap metal across 42 countries and rising energy costs linked to Middle East tensions are further
weighing on investment and the low-carbon transition.
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