Middle East Tensions Disturbed Aluminum Market, Domestic and International Aluminum Prices Diverged in Fluctuating Trend as They Moved Sideways [SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes]
[China Inventory Continued to Decline This Week, Aluminum Prices Moving Sideways with LME Outperforming SHFE in the Short Term] If the US-Iran ceasefire agreement materializes, it would significantly ease Middle East supply concerns, but recurring military frictions leave the peace outlook uncertain, and the short-term geopolitical premium tends to converge but has not fully dissipated. The rigid supply gap outside China supported a relatively strong LME aluminum pattern. China's inventory continued to decline but remained at historically high levels, capping the upside elasticity of SHFE aluminum, and the divergence between LME and SHFE is expected to persist in the short term. Going forward, key areas to watch include whether China's inventory drawdown accelerates, whether the US-Iran agreement can be formally signed, further clarity on the US Fed's interest rate path, and whether China is further tightening regulations on aluminum capacity operations. Overall, aluminum prices are expected to move sideways in the short term with LME outperforming SHFE.