[SMM Analysis] Bulls and Bears Intertwined, Range-Bound Trading at High Levels Continues

Today, the SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate spot price continued to rise from the previous working day. Futures side, the lithium carbonate 2609 contract opened high at 181,000 yuan/mt today, quickly dipped to the intraday low of 178,000 yuan/mt after the opening, then rebounded with fluctuations, hitting highs of 182,100 yuan/mt multiple times during the morning session; around midday, it accelerated downward, breaking below the 180,000 yuan/mt average price line; in the afternoon session, it hovered at lows and struggled to rebound, weakening again toward the close, ultimately settling down 0.71% at 178,900 yuan/mt, with open interest increasing by 5,887 lots.

Spot market, at the beginning of the month, downstream customer-supplied and long-term contract cargoes arrived at plants successively. Combined with remaining volumes from prior spot order restocking, and with the market still watching this month's pricing tone, spot order purchase willingness was weak today, with inquiries and transactions overall sluggish. Upstream lithium chemical plants continued to hold prices firm, with spot order shipments still mostly concentrated among producers that had previously hedged, and their reluctance to sell remained unchanged. News side, supply-side disruptions continued. The DRC recently approved a decree classifying lithium as a strategic mineral, raising the royalty rate from 3.5% to 10%. However, given that the country's current lithium production is nearly zero and the Manono project is expected to commence production in H2, the policy's actual impact on immediate supply is limited, and it is more reflected in elevated medium and long-term cost expectations. In comparison, the continuation of Zimbabwe's lithium ore export controls, the uncertainty over the pace of production resumptions at Yichun lepidolite mines, and the support from continuously rising lithium concentrates prices on smelting costs remain more direct variables affecting current market sentiment. In the short term, lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate at highs.