SMM News, May 26:
Metals market:
As of the midday close, domestic market base metals mostly fell, with SHFE copper down 0.3%. SHFE aluminum edged down. SHFE lead fell 0.15%, SHFE zinc rose 0.52%. SHFE tin rose 1.37%. SHFE nickel fell 1.08%.
In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures fell 0.26%, the most-traded alumina contract rose 5.08%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 1.83%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.52%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 0.53%.
Ferrous metals mostly fell, with iron ore down 1.82%, rebar down 1.99%, hot-rolled coil down 1.81%, and stainless steel down 0.03%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 6.05%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 2.54%.
Overseas market base metals, as of 11:45, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper rose 0.26%. LME aluminum edged up, LME lead rose 0.1%. LME zinc rose 0.75%. LME tin rose 1.3%. LME nickel fell 1.09%.
Precious metals, as of 11:45, COMEX gold rose 0.46%, COMEX silver rose 1.4%. Domestic market precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.07%, the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 0.02%.
In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 0.44%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.52%.
As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 0.41%, closing at 2,931.5 points.
As of 11:45 on May 26, midday futures quotes for selected contracts:
Spot and fundamentals
Copper:Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 160 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 80 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 10 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 105,010 yuan/mt, down 735 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 104,900 yuan/mt, down 745 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Today, Guangdong inventory ended a 4-consecutive-day increase and resumed declining...
Macro front
China:
[MOFCOM: Will attract more multinational companies to place R&D and high-end manufacturing operations in China]The State Council Information Office held a press conference on the 2026 Qingdao Summit of Multinational Corporation Leaders. Yan Dong, Vice Minister of Commerce, stated that efforts will be made to optimize the investment structure and activate new momentum for foreign investment. MOFCOM issued and implemented the 2025 edition of the Catalogue of Industries for Encouraging Foreign Investment, with a net increase of 205 encouraged categories, focusing on areas such as advanced manufacturing, modern services, high-tech, and energy conservation and environmental protection, providing policy support for foreign-invested enterprises to expand into high-end and emerging sectors. In the next step, more multinational companies will be attracted to locate their R&D and high-end manufacturing operations in China, further optimizing the structure of foreign investment in China and strengthening innovation momentum.
[Huang Guanglie, Deputy Secretary General of Guangzhou Municipal Government: Confident in Further Consolidating the Stabilizing and Improving Trend of Guangzhou's Property Market]On May 26, Guangzhou held a press conference on the series of supporting documents for the Implementation Opinions on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market. Huang Guanglie, Deputy Secretary General of Guangzhou Municipal Government, stated that going forward, Guangzhou will continue to improve the two major systems of the housing market and housing security, and constantly optimize property market regulation measures. Departments including the Municipal Bureau of Planning and Natural Resources, the Municipal Bureau of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and the Municipal Housing Provident Fund Center have issued supporting detailed rules on matters such as land supply, special subsidies for "selling old and buying new," and "commercial-to-provident fund loan conversion." Huadu District responded swiftly by launching the "Huadu Eight Measures" as specific initiatives. State-owned enterprises represented by Guangzhou Anju Group are accelerating the launch of pilot work on the acquisition and revitalization of second-hand housing. We are confident that as these detailed rules are fully implemented and all sectors work in coordination, the stabilizing and improving trend of Guangzhou's property market will be further consolidated. (Jin10 Data APP)
[Guangzhou: Removing Restrictions on "Only Housing in the City" and the Number of Provident Fund Loan Uses]On May 26, 2026, the Guangzhou Housing Provident Fund Management Center issued the normative document Measures for the Conversion of Commercial Personal Housing Loans to Housing Provident Fund Personal Housing Loans in Guangzhou (Provisional). The document proposed expanding the scope of commercial loan banks by removing the restriction that "the original commercial loan bank must be a housing provident fund entrusted bank," allowing commercial loans from non-housing provident fund handling banks to be converted into pure housing provident fund loans. Requirements on loan types, terms, and provident fund contribution periods were relaxed. For commercial-to-provident fund conversion handled by housing provident fund loan handling banks, if the convertible loan amount is not enough to fully repay the principal and interest of the original commercial loan, applicants may choose to convert to a combined loan. The requirement for account opening and cumulative housing provident fund contribution period was reduced from "60 months" to "36 months." The original commercial loan disbursement period was shortened from "more than 3 years" to "more than 2 years." The restrictions on "only housing in the city" and the number of provident fund loan uses were removed. The requirement that "the mortgaged property must be the applicant's family's only housing in the city" was eliminated, supporting applications for both first and second improved housing. Applicants who "have never used or have used housing provident fund loans only once" may also apply for commercial-to-provident fund conversion, no longer subject to the restriction of "never having used housing provident fund loans." (Jin10 Data)
[Xiong'an New Area: Maximum Housing Provident Fund Loan Amount Raised to 800,000 Yuan]Notice of the Xiong'an New Area Housing Management Center on Optimizing and Adjusting Housing Provident Fund Withdrawal and Loan Policies. The policy stated that for depositors meeting the rental housing withdrawal conditions in the new district, those who have not registered their housing lease contracts may withdraw up to 17,000 yuan per year; those who have registered their housing lease contracts on the "Hebei Xiong'an New District Housing Rental Information Service Platform" may withdraw up to 25,000 yuan per year. Depositors purchasing owner-occupied housing in the new district and applying for housing provident fund loans may borrow up to 800,000 yuan. Employees of Beijing-origin units relocated to the new district whose housing provident fund contributions are deposited in the new district may borrow up to 1.2 million yuan when purchasing owner-occupied housing in the new district and applying for housing provident fund loans. Families with two or more children purchasing owner-occupied housing in the new district and applying for housing provident fund loans may have their maximum loan amount increased by 200,000 yuan. For employee families with only one housing provident fund loan record nationwide that has been fully repaid and who have no property in the new district, the first-home housing provident fund loan policy shall apply. (Xiong'an Provident Fund)
[PBOC reverse repo operations achieved a net injection of 248.5 billion yuan on the day]The PBOC conducted 249 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 248.5 billion yuan was achieved on the day.
US dollar:
As of 11:45, the US dollar index rose 0.07% to 99.05. US Secretary of State Rubio, who concluded his visit to India, told the media today (May 26) regarding the US military's so-called "self-defense strikes" on multiple locations in southern Iran this morning that the Strait of Hormuz "must" remain open "no matter what." Rubio said, "The (Hormuz) Strait must be open, it will eventually be open in some way, it must be open." He also said that the agreement expected to be reached with Iran may still need "a few days" for wording negotiations. (CCTV International News)
According to CME "Fed Watch": the probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through June was 99.9%, with a 0.1% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut. The probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through July was 90.3%, with a 9.6% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike and a 0.1% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut. (Jin10 Data)
Other currencies:
Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himino Ryozo emphasized that timely policy adjustments are crucial for maintaining market participants' confidence amid the recent sell-off in Japanese government bonds. Himino said on Tuesday: "Regarding monetary policy and long-term interest rates, we believe it is very important to adjust the degree of monetary easing at an appropriate pace in response to future economic, price, and financial conditions, thereby maintaining market confidence that inflation will be properly controlled."This speech appeared to suggest that the Bank of Japan was open to raising interest rates in the near term. Himino Ryozo and other officials, including Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo, recently emphasized the need to maintain a responsible attitude toward financial markets, and the market widely expected the Bank of Japan to raise rates at its meeting next month. Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae subtly released signals last week that she hoped the Bank of Japan would maintain policy stability, as she was trying to mitigate the economic impact of the Iran war. Himino Ryozo stated: "The Bank of Japan will endeavor to implement policy appropriately to maintain this market confidence and achieve the price stability target in a sustainable and stable manner." (Jin10 Data)
DBS Group Research FX strategist Philip Wee said the Reserve Bank of New Zealand would most likely keep rates unchanged at its Wednesday meeting, but the overall stance would be hawkish. "The RBNZ may prioritize above-target inflation over weak GDP growth and high unemployment." Wee also said that a rate hike on Wednesday could not be ruled out, and therefore NZD/USD was expected to return to the upper half of this year's 0.5700–0.6100 trading range. (Jin10 Data)
On the data front:
The UK May CBI retail sales balance, US March FHFA house price index MoM, US March S&P/CS 20-city non-seasonally adjusted house price index YoY, US May Conference Board consumer confidence index, and US May Dallas Fed business activity index will be released today. In addition, attention should be paid to Xiaomi Group's earnings call.
On crude oil:
As of 11:45, oil prices in the two markets diverged, with WTI down 5.33% and Brent up 1.62%. US Central Command said the US and Israel struck multiple Iranian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, hours after Trump said negotiations with Tehran on an interim deal were making progress. The renewed fighting highlighted the fragility of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement. The market was closely watching strikes that could disrupt negotiations. (Jin10 Data)
According to Al Arabiya, a US-Iran draft agreement was reached. The draft agreement allows free and open passage through the Strait of Hormuz and the clearing of mines, with navigation through the Strait of Hormuz to be restored within 30 days. The agreement stipulates that the US commits to easing the blockade on Iranian ports; the agreement allows Iran to sell and export oil; the agreement will provide specific sanctions waivers for Iranian oil exports and will consider easing sanctions on Iranian oil in phases, with specifics depending on Iran's implementation of its commitments. The agreement stipulated that nuclear negotiations would continue to reach a long-term consensus.
Spot Market Overview:
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