[SMM Nickel Market Flash] New HPM Pass-Through Could Push Some Indonesian RKEF Operations into Loss

Indonesian stainless steel producers have cut export offer prices by a further $40/t on May 28, 2026, following an initial reduction in mid-May that broke a six-consecutive-month run of price increases. The cuts reflect a confluence of bearish pressures: the market has entered the traditional Q2 seasonal slowdown, with downstream buying interest subdued and buyers broadly in wait-and-see mode. At the same time, elevated mill and social inventories — built up during a period of high-margin production — are adding to downside pressure. With multiple headwinds converging, Indonesian producers have been forced into successive downward price corrections.

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 28 May , 2026

Nippon Steel's significant price hike on the back of soaring raw material costs, combined with peak-level export offers from Europe, the US, and Asia, is pushing Chinese Taiwan's upstream mills toward higher June pricing. However, frequent shifts in Indonesian nickel ore policies have caused sharp LME nickel price volatility, complicating cost-based price adjustments for mills worldwide. Traders note that Japanese mills' lead in raising prices and high-priced European and US imports provide short-term support for the uptrend, but sluggish overall market absorption in May and elevated inventory at local distributors are constraining the extent of any price increase.