May 19, 2026
The gold market currently holds a surprise for commodity investors: demand from central banks appears to be significantly higher than official statistics have suggested so far. Goldman Sachs has revised its models and uncovered a significant gap in global trade data. The result supports a notably positive scenario for the precious metal—even if investors must expect headwinds in the short term.
50 tons per month instead of 29
The core of the new Goldman Sachs analysis lies in a more precise assessment of market dynamics. According to the analysts, official gold demand has been systematically underestimated since August 2025. The reason: British trade data apparently no longer fully reflected outflows from London vaults—for the U.S. bank, a clear indication of unreported gold purchases by government entities.
After adjusting for this data gap, a new picture emerges: The current estimate of central bank purchases (based on a 12-month moving average) stood at around 50 tons per month in March. Under the old calculation method, experts had previously estimated only 29 tons. This significant difference shifts the perspective on the market and reinforces the structurally solid foundation of the gold price.
Strategic Anchor: Forecast Rises to 60 Tons Monthly
Central banks generally do not act based on short-term yield considerations. They buy gold to diversify their currency reserves over the long term and as a strategic safety net in times of geopolitical uncertainty. Since this fundamental interest remains high, Goldman Sachs forecasts average central bank purchases of around 60 tons per month for the year 2026.
Against this backdrop—and supported by its own surveys of central banks—the U.S. investment bank reaffirms its price target: By the end of 2026, the gold price is expected to reach the $5,400 per ounce mark. Experts also anticipate that this momentum will, over time, increasingly attract private investors as well.
Liquidity Risk: When Market Turbulence Forces Sales
Despite the positive long-term outlook, Goldman Sachs does not overlook the short-term risks. The danger here lies in the nature of the precious metal: Gold is extremely liquid. In tense, volatile market phases, when investors urgently need cash, gold is often sold without hesitation to cover other shortfalls. Even fundamentally strong asset classes come under pressure when market liquidity takes precedence over everything else.
For investors, this results in a clear dichotomy: The long-term upward trend is supported by strong, safety-driven, and now more precisely quantified central bank purchases. In the short term, however, price movements remain vulnerable to liquidity-driven sales. Those who can withstand these fluctuations are positioning themselves in a market where the most important group of buyers appears to be significantly more willing to buy than previously assumed.
Source: https://goldinvest.de/en/is-gold-heading-toward-usd5-400-central-banks-are-buying-more-than-expected
