[SMM Analysis] Production Rose Slightly This Week, Inventory Continued Destocking Trend

Today, SMM battery-grade spot lithium carbonate prices fluctuated downward compared to the previous working day. Futures side, the lithium carbonate 2609 contract opened high today at 206,500 yuan/mt, quickly surging to the intraday high of 209,900 yuan/mt (up approximately 2.4%) after the opening, but then rapidly pulled back and fell below the average price line; it continued to fluctuate downward during the session, accelerating its decline to the intraday low of 195,000 yuan/mt around midday (down approximately 4.8%); it rebounded slightly in the afternoon, moving sideways around 200,000 yuan/mt, and ultimately closed down 1.87% at 202,000 yuan/mt, with open interest decreasing by 17,941 lots. Spot market, as prices fluctuated downward, downstream just-in-time procurement activities increased, upstream sentiment to hold prices firm and hold back from selling recovered, willingness to sell on spot orders weakened, and the volume of registered warrants delivered to futures for hedging continued to increase, with warrant volume rising to 49,000 lots as of today. Overall, market inquiries and actual transaction activity were active.

This week, lithium carbonate production increased slightly, mainly due to continued steady production ramp-up from the salt lake and recycling segments. Transaction and inventory changes: upstream lithium chemical plants continued to slow down spot order shipments, while hedging registered warrant volumes increased. As lithium prices continued to fluctuate at highs, downstream and traders' purchase willingness weakened, leading to a slight inventory buildup at the upstream level this week. Downstream material plants, due to continuously rising prices, maintained weak spot order purchase willingness, with fewer opportunities to buy the dip this week, and enterprises mostly continued to consume earlier inventory and long-term contract and customer-supplied materials delivered at the beginning of the month. Trader side, as downstream found it difficult to purchase at levels above 200,000 yuan/mt, inventory continued to accumulate.