Futures:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,996.5/mt, briefly touching a low of $1,995.5/mt during the Asian session. LME lead continued to rise firmly after entering the European session, reaching a high of $2,016/mt near the close, and ultimately settled at $2,004/mt, up 0.33%, refreshing a nearly 4-month high.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,655 yuan/mt, then moved sideways, with a low of 16,625 yuan/mt and a high of 16,675 yuan/mt during the session, ultimately settling at 16,640 yuan/mt, up 0.15%.
On the macro front:
US Fed's Collins: If inflation does not ease, rate hikes may be needed. US April PPI surged 1.4% MoM and 6% YoY, both the largest increases since 2022. OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth expectations from 1.38 million bpd to 1.17 million bpd. US President Trump arrived in Beijing to begin his visit to China. He Lifeng held economic and trade consultations with US Treasury Secretary Bessent in South Korea. China's State Administration for Market Regulation: launched a special campaign to remove obstacles hindering the unified market and fair competition.
:
SHFE lead remained in the doldrums. Suppliers offered limited quotations, with some waiting for delivery and others seeing rising wait-and-see sentiment. Additionally, cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters also saw relatively fewer quotations. Secondary lead side, regional supply disparities persisted, with smelters showing strong reluctance to sell at low prices. Some smelters held prices firm for shipments, with secondary refined lead quoted at premiums of 0~+50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-works basis. Downstream enterprises made just-in-time procurement, with inquiry enthusiasm still present and some purchasing on dips as needed, but market trading activity weakened compared to yesterday.
Inventory: On May 13, LME lead inventory decreased by 250 mt to 265,300 mt. As of May 11, SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory increased by approximately 2,200 mt WoW.
Lead price forecast for today:
Ex-China lead ingot inventory continued to decline, while the LME Cash-3M spread maintained a slight contango. Combined with the persistently tight spot market supply in Southeast Asia, LME lead is expected to hold up well. In addition, uncertainty surrounding overseas geopolitical factors remains significant, and their impact on the market warrants continued attention. Although domestic spot lead prices received a slight boost from LME lead's movement, upward momentum remained insufficient due to weak end-use consumption.
Data source statement: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.
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