Silicon Metal Futures Prices Weakened, Heavy Wait-and-See Sentiment in Polysilicon Market [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM May 13 update:

Silicon coal

Price: Silicon coal market prices were largely stable this week. Specifically, the average price of mixed silicon coal in Gansu was 980 yuan/mt, silicon granular coal averaged 1,100 yuan/mt, non-caking silicon coal in Xinjiang averaged around 855 yuan/mt, caking silicon coal price range was around 1,300-1,550 yuan/mt, silicon coal in Shaanxi averaged around 800-850 yuan/mt, and Inner Mongolia silicon coal was 1,250-1,290 yuan/mt.

Supply: Currently affected by weak demand, overall operating rates remained at relatively low levels. Some coal washing plants continued to produce based on sales, but some individual coal washing plants saw certain inventory accumulation due to slow shipments.

Demand: Overall downstream silicon plants maintained low operating rates, with procurement demand mainly driven by rigid needs. Coupled with the sluggish silicon metal market, downstream silicon plants also adopted a cautious attitude toward raw material procurement, restocking on an as-needed basis in a timely manner.

Silicon metal

Price: Yesterday, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at 9,300-9,400 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon was at 9,400-9,600 yuan/mt. Yesterday, bulls' sentiment in the silicon metal market faded, total open interest decreased, the most-traded contract trended weaker, silicon enterprises' offers were basically stable, and trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market showed increased willingness to sell.

Production:

Supply side, SMM data showed silicon metal production in April was 320,000 mt, down 3% MoM and up 6% YoY. Silicon metal production in May is expected to increase MoM, though specific operating rates remain uncertain, and attention should still be paid to changes in operating rates of top-tier players and the Sichuan region.

Inventory:

Social inventory: According to SMM statistics, as of May 7, social inventory of silicon metal in major regions totaled 551,000 mt, down 5,000 mt WoW (excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, etc.).

Silicone

Price

DMC: Weekly the most-traded contract transaction price was 14,700-15,000 yuan/mt. After this industry conference, silicone DMC prices advanced steadily, with a slight increase of 200 yuan/mt based on early April prices, and the mainstream market offer reached 15,000 yuan/mt. Yesterday, a monomer plant in Shandong slightly raised its DMC offer by 100 yuan/mt to 14,800 yuan/mt, which will drive the overall transaction price center slightly upward.

D4: Yesterday's offer was 14,800-15,200 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt WoW.

107 silicone rubber: Yesterday's offer was 15,000-15,400 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan/mt WoW.

Raw rubber: Yesterday's offer was 15,600-16,000 yuan/mt, up 300 yuan/mt WoW.

Silicone oil: Yesterday's offer was 16,300-16,700 yuan/mt, up 300 yuan/mt WoW.

Production:

The industry continued to implement the cyclical 35% emission reduction standard. However, from a weekly supply perspective, as facilities at individual enterprises that had previously undergone maintenance shutdowns resumed normal production, supply edged up WoW.

Inventory:

Most producers currently focused primarily on delivering pre-sold orders. Supported by this, overall upstream producer inventory levels remained relatively stable WoW.

Polysilicon

Price:

Polysilicon N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 34-36.1 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices were overall relatively stable, with extremely limited order signing in the market. Some crystal pulling plants showed willingness to purchase at lower prices, but top-tier players still held the floor above 35 yuan. With cost determination imminent, producers maintained a strong wait-and-see sentiment.

Production

In May, one production base resumed production and began output while another had a production cut plan. Overall production edged up, and there are expectations of a relatively significant increase in polysilicon in June-July.

Inventory:

Polysilicon inventory increased. Order signing decreased this week while production did not change significantly, and inventory rose accordingly.

Wafer

Price

The market price of 18X wafers was 0.9-0.93 yuan/piece, 210RN wafers were priced at 1.00-1.03 yuan/piece, and 210N wafers were priced at 1.2-1.23 yuan/piece. Recently, a top-tier enterprise concluded bulk transactions for 210R at 1.02 yuan/piece. Currently, the previous round of price increases has been accepted for all sizes except 210N, and the subsequent trend will depend on downstream cell price movements.

Production

According to the latest SMM survey, May wafer production schedules were raised by approximately 10%, exceeding 50 GW. Multiple enterprises increased production, while only two enterprises were forced to cut production due to reduced toll processing orders. The market toll processing landscape underwent a relatively notable adjustment.

Inventory

Wafer enterprise inventory shifted to an increase. As export order demand weakened marginally in the near term, the wafer segment is expected to maintain a slight surplus in May.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Price

Currently, the price of inner-layer sand in China was 40,000-45,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand was priced at 20,000-25,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand was priced at 16,000-18,000 yuan/mt. Imported high-purity quartz sand was priced at 50,000-55,000 yuan/mt. The price of 33-inch quartz crucibles was 6,000-6,200 yuan/piece, and 36-inch quartz crucibles were priced at 6,700-6,900 yuan/piece. Imported quartz sand prices declined notably.

Production

May quartz sand enterprise production schedules are expected to edge up slightly. Domestic high-purity quartz sand enterprises formulated production plans in line with wafer demand, while an ex-China high-purity quartz sand enterprise postponed its production equalization plan.

Inventory

In Q2 2026, crucible enterprises made reasonable purchases based on wafer planned production, and quartz sand inventory levels continued to increase.