Macro Policy and Supply-Demand Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers: Aluminum Prices Move Sideways [SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes]
[Macro Policy and Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers: Aluminum Prices Move Sideways] The risk of supply disruptions to aluminum outside China has not yet subsided, and there remains a supply gap in ex-China aluminum, with the strong LME market transmitting to China and providing support for aluminum prices. However, the continuation of inventory buildup exceeding expectations in China will weigh on domestic aluminum prices. Meanwhile, tightened invoicing regulations may lead to structural tightness in spot cargo, and the weakening spot market further limits the upside room for domestic aluminum prices. Close attention should be paid to the potential turning point in China's social inventory, which could drive a rebound and rise in aluminum prices.