Polysilicon Spot Prices Largely Stable, Wafer Market Expected to Rise After Holiday [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM May 6 update:

Silicon Coal

Price: Silicon coal market prices were largely stable this week. Specifically, the average price of blended silicon coal in Gansu was 980 yuan/mt, and silicon granular coal averaged 1,100 yuan/mt. In Xinjiang, non-caking silicon coal averaged around 855 yuan/mt, and caking silicon coal was in the price range of around 1,300-1,550 yuan/mt. Silicon coal in Shaanxi averaged around 800-850 yuan/mt, and in Inner Mongolia 1,250-1,290 yuan/mt.

Supply: The produce-based-on-sales model was maintained, with production arranged according to order conditions.

Demand: With the overall silicon metal market still in a weak position, silicon plants' procurement of raw material silicon coal remained primarily driven by rigid demand.

Silicon Metal

Price: SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at 9,000-9,200 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon at 9,200-9,400 yuan/mt. Spot silicon metal prices were basically stable around the Labour Day holiday, while futures prices held up well. Fundamentally, silicon metal supply and demand were in tight balance in April, and no major adjustments to the supply-demand structure are expected for May for the time being.

Production:

Supply side, SMM data showed silicon metal production in April was 320,000 mt, down 3% MoM and up 6% YoY. Silicon metal production in May is expected to increase MoM, though specific operating rates remain uncertain, and attention should still be paid to changes in operating rates of top-tier enterprises and the Sichuan region.

Inventory:

Social inventory: According to SMM statistics, social inventory of silicon metal in major regions totalled 556,000 mt as of April 30, flat WoW (excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, and other regions).

Silicone

Price

DMC: The most-traded contract transaction price was 14,700-15,000 yuan/mt, stable MoM. With cost support still in place, coupled with low operating rates at producers and sufficient pre-sale order schedules, DMC market prices are expected to continue to hold up well.

D4: Yesterday's quoted price was 14,800-15,100 yuan/mt, stable MoM.

107 silicone rubber: Yesterday's quoted price was 14,700-15,300 yuan/mt, stable MoM.

Crude rubber: Yesterday's quoted price was 15,300-15,700 yuan/mt, stable MoM.

Silicone oil: Yesterday's quoted price was 16,000-16,400 yuan/mt, raised 200 yuan/mt MoM.

Production:

Overall silicone DMC production in April declined approximately 4.8% MoM. In May, some units previously under maintenance will resume normal production, and overall production schedules are expected to edge up, with an estimated increase of about 8% MoM.

Inventory:

Overall inventory is currently at a relatively low level. However, due to differences in shipments speed across various segments, some individual products have seen slight inventory accumulation. As a result, polysiloxane inventory edged up approximately 5.27% MoM in April.

Polysilicon

Price:

Polysilicon N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 34-36 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices remained relatively stable during the holiday, with extremely limited order signing in the market. Crystal pulling plants had no significant purchasing demand for the time being. Relevant surveys and conferences are scheduled for the near future, and the market is watching subsequent developments.

Production

Recently, more bases cut production in April, and April polysilicon production may have fallen short of expectations, with production estimated to have dropped below 90,000 mt. In May, one base plans to resume production and deliver output while another base has a production cut plan, with overall production edging up.

Inventory:

Currently, polysilicon inventory increased. Order signing decreased this week while production did not change significantly, leading to a subsequent rise in inventory.

Wafer

Price

The market price of 18X wafers was 0.9-0.93 yuan/piece, 210RN wafers were priced at 1.00-1.03 yuan/piece, and 210N wafers were priced at 1.2-1.23 yuan/piece. During the holiday, wafer prices remained stable, and cell prices are expected to rise after the holiday.

Production

Based on current survey feedback, May wafer production schedules were raised by approximately 6%, with multiple specialized enterprises increasing production and individual leading integrated enterprises raising their operating loads. The toll processing landscape in the market underwent relatively notable changes.

Inventory

Wafer enterprise inventory declined notably. Overseas warehouses shipped goods successively, and inventory in China shifted notably from the wafer segment to the cell segment, driving the wafer segment into a destocking cycle.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Price

Currently, the price of domestic inner-layer sand was 40,000-45,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand was 20,000-25,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand was 16,000-18,000 yuan/mt. Imported high-purity quartz sand was priced at 55,000-60,000 yuan/mt. The price of 33-inch quartz crucibles was 6,000-6,200 yuan/piece, and 36-inch quartz crucibles were priced at 6,700-6,900 yuan/piece. Imported quartz sand prices declined notably.

Production

May quartz sand enterprise production schedules are expected to edge up. Domestic high-purity quartz sand enterprises formulated production plans in line with wafer demand, while an ex-China high-purity quartz sand enterprise postponed its production equalization plan.

Inventory

In Q2 2026, crucible enterprises purchased reasonably based on wafer planned production, and quartz sand inventory levels continued to increase.