U.S.-Iran Situation Stagnant, Copper Prices Pull Back [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

2026.4.29 Wednesday
Futures: Overnight LME copper opened at $13,060/mt, with the price center gradually shifting lower to touch $12,937.5/mt in early trading, then fluctuated upward to reach $13,075/mt, before experiencing wild swings and finally closing at $13,034.5/mt, down 1.45%. Trading volume reached 27,900 lots, and open interest stood at 275,500 lots, down 3,200 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions. Overnight the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 101,020 yuan/mt, touching a low of 100,620 yuan/mt in early trading, then fluctuated upward to probe 101,320 yuan/mt, before moving sideways and finally closing at 101,000 yuan/mt, down 1.15%. Trading volume reached 51,000 lots, and open interest stood at 200,000 lots, down 2,327 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News:
(1) The CPC Central Committee Political Bureau meeting held on April 28, compared with the Political Bureau meetings in April and July last year and the Central Economic Work Conference in December last year, added the requirement of being "precise and effective" in setting the tone for macro policies in the next phase, and continued to emphasize the "four stabilizations" (stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations). Key tasks continued to focus on tapping domestic demand potential and building a modern industrial system, emphasizing promoting consumption upgrades, strengthening new-type infrastructure construction of "six major networks," and explicitly proposing requirements to maintain a reasonable proportion of manufacturing, deeply rectify "involution-style" competition, and improve artificial intelligence governance. In addition, in terms of preventing and resolving risks in key areas, efforts to stabilize the real estate market, address overdue enterprise payments, and stabilize and strengthen capital market confidence were reiterated.
(2) Trump claimed Iran was on the verge of collapse and requested opening the strait, while Iran stated it had absolute control over the strait and demanded vessel transit fees. The two sides showed significant divergence in their positions. Crude oil prices rose at high levels, and risk assets pulled back under pressure.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On April 28, the SHFE copper 2605 contract showed a "V" shape in early trading. The opening price was 102,380 yuan/mt, pulling back slightly after opening to range between 102,070 yuan/mt and 102,340 yuan/mt, then prices continued to decline, probing a low of 101,820 yuan/mt. After stabilizing, prices rebounded, with a closing price of 102,250 yuan/mt. The inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts ranged from 80 yuan/mt to 20 yuan/mt. The SHFE copper import profit margin against the 2605 contract ranged from a loss of 130 yuan/mt to 50 yuan/mt. Looking ahead, some downstream enterprises prefer to purchase directly from smelters to ensure monthly invoice issuance, diverting some spot demand from the trading market. Demand side, with the Labour Day holiday approaching, some downstream enterprises have pre-holiday stockpiling needs, but according to SMM, actual demand growth is limited. At current copper prices and premium levels, some downstream enterprises show low acceptance and insufficient willingness to chase higher prices. Supplier behavior side, with month-end settlement approaching, some suppliers show limited enthusiasm for shipments, and available low-priced cargo is limited, supporting spot premiums. Overall, amid the interplay between tight invoices and high prices suppressing demand, Shanghai spot copper is expected to maintain premiums against the 2605 contract tomorrow.
(2) Guangdong: On April 28, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 320 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 230 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 170 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,320 yuan/mt, down 765 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,215 yuan/mt, down 770 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, as copper prices declined, suppliers held prices firm but purchase willingness was poor, and trading activity was weak.
(3) Imported copper: On April 28, the average warrant price fell $5/mt from the previous trading day to $62/mt (price range $56-70/mt); the average B/L price fell $6/mt from the previous trading day to $59/mt (price range $51-69/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price fell $5/mt from the previous trading day to $30/mt (price range $20-40/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving from late April to early-to-mid May. Intraday spot trading remained affected by month-end settlement, and importers had extremely low willingness to import month-end arriving cargoes, so most were sold off at low prices before arrival.
(4) Secondary copper: On April 28, the 11:30 futures closing price was 103,070 yuan/mt, up 670 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 25 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Copper scrap prices remained unchanged MoM. The copper scrap sales sentiment index fell to 2.64, and the procurement sentiment index fell to 2.26. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,861 yuan/mt, up 93 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,715 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, secondary copper rod enterprises currently faced restrictions on bill payments, leading to a notable decline in copper scrap procurement volume. Due to the adoption of "reverse invoicing" practices and extended payment cycles, many yards reported that they could not replenish inventory immediately after selling goods, as funds were tied up in payment collection cycles, causing increasing financial constraints among copper scrap yards.
Prices: On the macro front, the US prohibited domestic and foreign entities from paying Strait of Hormuz transit fees to Iran, or face significant sanctions risks. Iran would soon submit a revised peace proposal, and Trump said Iran wanted the US to open the strait as soon as possible. The US Department of Energy (DOE) Secretary stated that not all mines needed to be cleared to open the strait, and there was no ban on US energy product exports. Rubio said there was no evidence that Iran's Supreme Leader had died. Iran's military believed the war was not over and had upgraded equipment; the Revolutionary Guards claimed absolute control over the strait and demanded transit fees from passing vessels. Uncertainty over the Middle East conflict fueled inflation concerns, driving the US dollar index higher and weighing on copper prices. Fundamentals side, approaching month-end settlement suppressed some suppliers' shipment sentiment, and market circulating supply was limited; demand side, affected by elevated copper prices, pre-holiday stockpiling sentiment was lukewarm, and actual demand growth was limited. Considering both macro disturbances and fundamental conditions, China's copper prices were expected to continue to move sideways in the doldrums today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and not replace their own independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]