SMM Alumina Morning Comment 4.9
Futures:During the night session, the most-traded alumina futures contract AO2605 opened at 2,681 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 2,693 yuan/mt and a low of 2,672 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,676 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous day. Open interest increased by 6,480 lots to 182,300 lots, as bulls and bears continued to wrestle in the market. From a technical perspective, the closing price was below MA5 (2,709.80), MA10 (2,793.60), and MA30 (2,871.73.37), indicating certain overhead resistance for upward movement. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator DEA (-9.09) crossed above DIF (-47.11), with a "death cross continuation," and the histogram stood at -76.03. Alumina futures are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term, and attention should continue to be paid to geopolitical impacts, commissioning plans for new capacity, and inventory changes.
Ore:As of April 8, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index was at $68.41/mt, down $0.06/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea FOB average price was at $38.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was at $68.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $61.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $56.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The Malaysia bauxite CIF average price was at $52/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The Malaysia bauxite CIF (washed) average price was at $62.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The Ghana bauxite CIF price was at $76.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The bauxite CFR (Turkey) price was at $78/mt, unchanged from last Friday. Overall, domestic ore supply remained relatively sufficient, and ore prices were basically stable. For imported ore, against the backdrop of ocean freight rate fluctuations, major mines controlled shipments, market sentiment toward trading quotas weakened, and coupled with still-high inventories at alumina refineries in China (approximately 93 days), procurement demand was suppressed, with buyers and sellers continuing to wrestle over pricing. Ore prices are unlikely to see significant growth in the short term, and the market should focus on the implementation of Guinea's "quota system" policy and ocean freight rate trends going forward.
Spot Price:As of April 8, 2025, the SMM alumina index was at 2,781.23 yuan/mt, down 4.54 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Shandong alumina index was at 2,766.53 yuan/mt, down 5.16 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Henan alumina index was at 2,818.04 yuan/mt, down 8.02 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Shanxi alumina index was at 2,803.53 yuan/mt, down 6.35 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Guizhou alumina index was at 2,814.25 yuan/mt, down 2.62 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Guangxi alumina index was at 2,768.11 yuan/mt, down 3.01 yuan/mt MoM.
Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report:According to SMM data, on April 8, the SMM alumina index was at a premium of 87.23 yuan/mt against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30 AM.
Warrant Daily Report:On April 8, total registered alumina warrants increased by 1,492 mt from the previous trading day to 452,100 mt. In Shandong, registered alumina warrants increased by 1,492 mt from the previous trading day to 52,000 mt. In Henan, registered alumina warrants remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 17,710 mt. In Guangxi, registered alumina warrants remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 29,452 mt. In Gansu, registered alumina warrants remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 49,847 mt. In Xinjiang, registered alumina warrants remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 30.31 mt.
Markets Outside China:As of April 8, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $320/mt, the ocean freight rate was $32.15/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.85. This translated to a selling price at major domestic ports of approximately 2,804.50 yuan/mt, which was 23.27 yuan/mt higher than the alumina index price. According to the SMM model, the import window was closed.
Summary: As of last Thursday, the alumina market in China saw slight destocking, with overall inventory decreasing by 22,000 mt. From a supply-demand structure perspective, inventory changes were mainly driven by destocking at aluminum smelters and the gradual emergence of new production from the supply side. Supply side, a certain alumina refinery in Shandong started feeding at month-end last week. Although the industry operating rate edged down by 0.23 percentage points this week, weekly production edged up by 2,000 mt. With the commissioning of new capacity, the supply side showed a marginally looser trend overall. Inventory side, aluminum smelters destocked by 41,000 mt, mainly because the spot alumina market in south China was relatively tight, and spot prices rose compared with the previous period, leading to lower restocking willingness and further accelerating inventory declines at aluminum smelters. Finished product inventories at alumina refineries edged up by 4,000 mt to 1.237 million mt, mainly driven by price rebounds that boosted production enthusiasm at enterprises, with inventories seeing slight buildup after production increased. Port inventories as well as in-transit and platform inventories saw relatively small changes this week, mainly due to no new vessel arrivals, with external circulation channels remaining stable. SHFE futures warrant side, inventories in Xinjiang remained at high levels, the overall pace of shipping to delivery warehouses slowed down compared with the previous period, and prices declined during the period, reducing market willingness to ship to delivery warehouses, which somewhat suppressed the increase in futures warrants. Looking ahead to next week, as newly commissioned capacity continues to release, supply-side increments are expected to gradually emerge. Given insufficient restocking momentum on the demand side, alumina inventories are expected to show signs of slight buildup, with overall prices likely to remain relatively stable in the short term. However, the marginal impact of increased supply on the market is expected to gradually intensify, and the inventory structure may shift toward buildup. [Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.]
