SMM Alumina Morning Comment 2.5
Futures:During the night session, the most-traded alumina futures contract AO2605 opened at 2,824 yuan/mt, reached a high of 2,824 yuan/mt, hit a low of 2,781 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,788 yuan/mt, down 36 yuan/mt from the previous day. Open interest increased by 7,776 lots to 383,000 lots, indicating an overall cautious market sentiment. From a technical perspective, the closing price was above MA10 (2,777.80) and MA30 (2,772.63), providing some upward momentum, but below MA5 (2,792.20), limiting gains with overhead pressure still present. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator DIF (7.18) crossed above DEA (0.19), with the bullish crossover at low levels weakening and the histogram narrowing to 13.96, suggesting alumina futures are expected to continue weakening in the near term.
Industry Updates:
1) Overseas alumina transactions: On February 3, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded overseas at a transaction price of $310/mt FOB Western Australia for March shipment. The previous transaction was on January 20 at $304/mt FOB Western Australia for February shipment.
Ore:As of February 4, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index stood at $62.42/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea FOB average price was $39/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was $61/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $60/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $56/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The Malaysian bauxite CIF average price was $47/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The Malaysian bauxite CIF (washed) average price was $60/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The Ghanaian bauxite CIF price was $73/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The bauxite CFR (Turkey) price was $71.5/mt, down $2/mt from last Friday. Domestic ore side, bauxite production resumptions in Shanxi were active, with currently ample supply. Combined with some domestic ore production lines planning to upgrade to imported ore lines recently, domestic ore demand weakened again, and prices were under pressure. Imported ore side, market transactions were sluggish, with offer prices continuing to decline. Some alumina refineries reported that amid falling ore prices, procurement plans remained cautious. SMM will continue to monitor domestic and overseas mines' production, port shipments, and price trends.
Spot Prices:As of February 4, 2025, the SMM alumina index was at 2,619.87 yuan/mt, down 0.27 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Shandong alumina index was at 2,549.77 yuan/mt, down 0.19 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Henan alumina index was at 2,617.91 yuan/mt, down 0.92 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Shanxi alumina index was at 2,604.23 yuan/mt, down 0.26 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Guizhou alumina index was at 2,693.56 yuan/mt, down 0.23 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Guangxi alumina index was at 2,674 yuan/mt, down 0.33 yuan/mt MoM.
Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report:According to SMM data, on February 4, the SMM alumina index was at a discount of 208.13 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract's latest transaction price at 11:30 AM.Warrant Daily Report:On February 4, total registered alumina warrants increased by 6,944 mt from the previous trading day to 196,300 mt. Shandong region alumina warrants remained unchanged at 7,796 mt. Henan region alumina warrants remained unchanged at 1,203 mt. Guangxi region alumina warrants remained unchanged at 7,505 mt. Gansu region alumina warrants remained unchanged at 17,400 mt. Xinjiang region alumina warrants increased by 6,944 mt from the previous trading day to 162,400 mt.
Markets Outside China:As of February 4, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $310/mt, the ocean freight rate was $20.2/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.95. This translated to a selling price at China's major ports of approximately 2,674.83 yuan/mt, which was 54.96 yuan/mt above the SMM alumina index price. According to SMM model calculations, the import window was closed.
Summary: Overall, as of last Thursday, China's alumina market inventory edged up slightly, with the overall oversupply pattern continuing. Currently, some alumina refineries have started maintenance, with enterprises across various regions arranging production shutdowns of different scales, leading to a decline in the industry operating rate and a weekly production decrease of 35,000 mt to 1.636 million mt. Inventory side, as more enterprises underwent maintenance, alumina in-factory inventory decreased by 3,000 mt to 1.2408 million mt. Aluminum enterprises' raw material inventory edged up slightly to 3.603 million mt, mainly due to continued shipments under long-term contract orders. Warrants, attracted by previously strong futures prices, saw increased delivery willingness, rising by 40,000 mt to 159,100 mt, while in-transit and platform inventory decreased by 30,000 mt as cargoes gradually arrived at end-users. Overall, although the pace of inventory buildup has slowed down compared to the earlier period, overall industry inventory pressure persists, and the destocking progress has fallen short of expectations. Going forward, attention should be paid to the execution of enterprise maintenance plans. If the supply side fails to sustain contraction, inventory is expected to maintain a slight buildup trend next week, and spot alumina prices are expected to be in the doldrums.
[Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.]
