SMM April 22:
Metals market:
As of the daytime close, base metals in the domestic market mostly rose, with only SHFE lead and SHFE tin declining together. SHFE lead fell 0.65% and SHFE tin fell 0.24%. The remaining base metals all gained less than 1%. The alumina front-month contract rose 0.28%, and the casting aluminum front-month contract rose 0.15%.
In addition, the lithium carbonate front-month contract rose 0.23%, the silicon metal front-month contract rose 0.29%, and the polysilicon front-month contract rose 5.13%. The Europe containerized freight front-month contract rose 2.52% to close at 2,176.1.
Ferrous metals, all rose except stainless steel, which fell 0.5%. Hot-rolled coil rose 0.62%. Coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 1.07% and coke rose 0.63%.
Overseas market, as of 15:06, overseas base metals mostly rose. LME copper, LME tin, and LME nickel all gained over 1%, with LME tin leading the gains at 1.82%, LME nickel up 1.35%, and LME copper up 1.18%. The remaining metals all gained less than 1%.
Precious metals, as of 15:06, COMEX gold rose 1.38% and COMEX silver rose 2.62%. In China, SHFE gold fell 0.46% and SHFE silver fell 1.3%.
In addition, the platinum front-month contract rose 0.39% and the palladium front-month contract rose 0.83%.
Market data as of 15:06 today
Macro Front
Domestic:
[Ministry of Emergency Management: China's workplace safety accidents dropped significantly in Q1]April 22 — According to the Ministry of Emergency Management, the total number of workplace safety accidents in China declined significantly in Q1, with the safety situation in most regions and industry sectors improving notably. Shen Zhanli, Director of the News and Publicity Department of the Ministry of Emergency Management, noted that a total of 3,258 workplace safety accidents of various types occurred nationwide in Q1, down 26.7% YoY. No extraordinarily severe accidents occurred, but major accidents and significant near-miss incidents remained frequent in some regions and industry sectors. Illegal production activities in sectors such as mining, chemicals, fire safety, and fireworks showed signs of resurgence, with increasing pressure to prevent and curb major and extraordinarily severe accidents, leaving the workplace safety situation far from optimistic. Regarding natural disasters, China was primarily affected by low-temperature freezing rain and snow, snowstorms, hailstorms, and earthquakes in Q1, while droughts, floods, forest fires, and geological disasters also occurred to varying degrees. (Xinhua) (Jin10 Data)
[China Motorcycle Commerce Association: Motorcycle exports reached 4.6268 million units in Q1]Based on customs data analysis, from January to March 2026, China's motorcycle exports totaled 4.6268 million units, up 13.49% compared to the same period last year, with an export value of $3.014 billion, up 16.93% compared to the same period last year. Latin America had the highest exports, with exports of 1.4812 million units, down 8.47% YoY, and an export value of $963 million, down 0.99% YoY. Africa saw the largest YoY increase, with exports of 1.753 million units, up 44.95% YoY, and an export value of $949 million, up 48.01% YoY. (Jin10 Data APP)
[Inauguration Ceremony of PV Patent Pool Expert Advisory Committee and PV Patent Pool Co-building Seminar Held in Beijing]On April 21, the inauguration ceremony of the PV Patent Pool Expert Advisory Committee and the PV Patent Pool Co-building Seminar were held in Beijing. The establishment of the Expert Advisory Committee aimed to provide regulatory supervision and guidance for the construction and operation of China's PV patent pool, promoting its lawful, compliant, and healthy development. Through prior solicitation, selection, and review, the first batch of 14 experts were selected, covering fields such as intellectual property management, PV technology R&D, legal litigation, and antitrust research. At the event, representatives from enterprises including TrinaSolar Co., Ltd., JA Solar Technology Co., Ltd., and Jinko Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. jointly launched the PV patent pool in the TOPCon battery technology field. (National Industrial Information Security Development Research Center)
[PBOC Reverse Repo Operations Achieved Net Injection of 5.5 Billion Yuan on the Day]The PBOC conducted 6 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations matured today, a net injection of 5.5 billion yuan was achieved on the day. (Jin10 Data APP)
US Dollar:
As of 15:06, the US dollar index fell 0.09% to 98.3. Bank Indonesia Governor: The US Fed interest rate cut may be delayed, and rates may remain unchanged through the end of 2026. (Jin10 Data APP)
A CICC research report noted that Fed Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh attended a Senate Banking Committee hearing, revealing his core policy stance of pursuing "balance sheet reduction and interest rate cuts" in parallel: at the balance sheet level, he explicitly opposed normalizing quantitative easing (QE), advocating for a gradual and orderly reduction of the US Fed's balance sheet size, withdrawing from quasi-fiscal functions, and returning it to its core monetary policy role; at the interest rate level, although he made no explicit commitment, his statements indicated an inclination toward interest rate cuts. In our view, Warsh's policy stance represents not only an adjustment to the monetary transmission mechanism, but also an extension of the "America First" strategy into the monetary domain amid the wave of de-globalization — shifting from a "global central bank" that endlessly supplies liquidity to the world, toward a new approach that firmly controls the monetary spigot, focuses on domestic productivity, and emphasizes monetary sovereignty. We believe this shift implies that the narrative of persistently excessive US dollar liquidity will face correction, and assets that relied solely on liquidity-driven momentum and benefited from "US dollar oversupply" may come under pressure. (Jin10 Data APP)
A CITIC Securities research report stated that Warsh's testimony demonstrated the high-difficulty balancing act he faces. On one hand, he needs to "please" Trump to a certain extent, thus acknowledging Trump's right to voice opinions on interest rates; on the other hand, he needs to earn the trust of the market and the US Fed internally, thus emphasizing the mission of price stability and the US Fed's independence. Although Warsh's performance was unsatisfactory when facing questions from Democratic lawmakers, this has a relatively small impact on whether Warsh can succeed Powell. Whether Warsh can successfully pass the Senate Banking Committee vote depends on whether he can secure the support of Republican Senator Tillis. We believe Trump will most likely TACO and withdraw the investigation into Powell to help Warsh pass the Senate vote. Warsh emphasized during the Q&A session that he would not become Trump's "puppet," and the market leaned toward hawkish trading. Warsh's ideas on reforming the US Fed deserve more market attention, especially his proposal that the US Fed needs a new inflation framework and his criticism of the US Fed's current approach to forward guidance. Warsh emphasized that the US Fed should shrink its balance sheet, using interest rates as the primary policy tool. However, we still believe Warsh's plan to shrink the balance sheet requires lengthy preparation, and the pace of implementation will be gradual. (Jin10 Data APP)
According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April was 0%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 100%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the US Fed through June was 1.7%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 98.3%. (Jin10 Data)
On the macro front:
The eurozone's preliminary April consumer confidence index, UK March CPI month-on-month rate, and UK March retail price index month-on-month rate were scheduled for release today. In addition, US Fed Governor Waller delivered a speech at the Brookings Institution.
Crude oil:
As of 15:06, oil prices in both markets fell, with WTI down 0.97% and Brent down 0.76%. Iran said there were "signs" that the US was preparing to lift its maritime blockade, and international oil prices plunged on the news. (Jin10 Data APP)
Iran's Tasnim News Agency reported that the Iranian side received "some signs" indicating that the US was preparing to lift its maritime blockade. Some analysts said that if the report was true, it would be good news, as it encouraged Iran to come to the negotiating table. For now, the ceasefire agreement will continue to be extended in accordance with US President Trump's statement. However, further negotiations may be delayed until further notice. Earlier, US Vice President Vance was originally scheduled to head to Pakistan later today, but some media reports indicated that his trip had been canceled due to Iran's unwillingness to engage in talks. Nevertheless, the market remained hopeful, and risk trades recovered on the news. (Jin Shi Data APP)
SMM Daily Review
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