Futures:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,968/mt. Amid ex-China lead ingot destocking and rising spot premiums in Southeast Asia, LME lead continued to fluctuate upward throughout the day, reaching an intraday high of $1,985.5/mt, jumping to a more than one-and-a-half-month high. However, entering the night session, renewed turmoil in the Middle East conflict triggered a broad sell-off in non-ferrous metals. LME lead also pulled back after surging, fully erasing daytime gains, and ultimately closed at $1,957.5/mt, down 0.84%.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,855 yuan/mt. With China's lead ingot inventory in a buildup phase and SHFE warrant inventory reversing its earlier decline, compounded by the drag from LME lead's decline, SHFE lead fell in a step-like pattern, gradually dropping through 16,850, 16,800, and 16,750 yuan/mt. SHFE lead ultimately closed at 16,750 yuan/mt, down 0.53%. Its open interest reached 62,279 lots, an increase of 2,009 lots from the previous trading day.
On the macro front:
US President Trump announced on local time Tuesday an extension of the ceasefire deadline, maintaining the naval blockade and awaiting Iran's submission of a unified negotiation proposal. Iranian media responded that Iran had not requested an extension of the ceasefire deadline. Iran ultimately decided not to participate in the US-Iran negotiations on the 22nd. US media: Vance canceled his trip to Pakistan. Fed Chairman nominee Warsh stated that the US Fed needs to develop a new framework to address inflation. Trump said he would be disappointed if the new Fed Chairman does not cut interest rates, and expressed surprise at the US stock market rebound during the Iran conflict.
:
Yesterday in the lead spot market, circulating cargoes in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai were limited. Suppliers held prices firm for shipments. Quotations for primary lead smelter cargoes self-picked up from production site also saw little change, with mainstream production areas quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-works basis, while premiums in some regions exceeded 100 yuan/mt. Secondary lead side, as lead prices rose, smelters showed improved willingness to ship, with secondary refined lead quoted at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-works basis, and premium situations were essentially absent. Downstream enterprises maintained just-in-time procurement, with some enterprises adopting a wait-and-see attitude due to rising lead prices. Spot order purchases were cautious, and spot transactions were sluggish.
Inventory: As of April 21, LME lead inventory decreased by 625 mt from the previous day to 27,300 mt. SHFE lead ingot warrant inventory stood at 56,847 mt, an increase of 2,874 mt from the previous trading day.
Today's Lead Price Forecast:
Recently, ex-China geopolitical tensions have been complex and intertwined, with warfare and negotiations going back and forth, and risk-averse sentiment in the market remained strong. Meanwhile, LME lead inventory continued to decline, and the spot premium in Southeast Asia remained at a high level, making the fundamentals outside China relatively better than those in the Chinese market. Currently, some secondary lead enterprises in China have resumed production after maintenance, while the import window for refined lead is approaching closure. Lead ingot supply saw both increases and decreases, and the off-season issue in lead consumption was prominent. Spot trading activity was relatively poor, which would drag lead prices lower.
Data Source Disclaimer: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.
![Strong Fundamentals VS Weak Macro: LME Lead Pulled Back After Surge [SMM Lead Morning Brief]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/TmYox20251217171721.jpeg)
