Last Week Tin Prices in and outside China Exhibited Wild Swings, Dominated by Repeated Shifts in Macro Sentiment [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes, April 20, 2026

Last week, tin prices in and outside China exhibited wild swings. The price center of the most-traded SHFE tin contract shifted upward from around 370,000 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week to above 390,000 yuan/mt, then consolidated within a high range, with market movements primarily driven by repeated shifts in macro sentiment. Fundamentals side, the overall supply-demand pattern remained stable but stagnant: supply side, most smelters maintained steady production in April, and Indonesia's refined tin exports in February surged 37% MoM to 3,634.6 mt, with exports to China accounting for over half, indicating relatively ample supply; demand side, weakness persisted, as downstream enterprises' purchase willingness cooled significantly amid tin prices climbing to absolute highs, market trading activity was sluggish with only sporadic rigid demand transactions at low levels, and the suppressive effect of high prices on spot cargo demand was highly evident. Macro perspective, tin prices initially came under pressure due to escalating geopolitical tensions; subsequently, marginally positive peace signals combined with elevated oil prices shifted market trading logic toward "anti-inflation," with metals' allocation appeal attracting capital inflows and supporting futures in breaking through key levels; later, the market gradually desensitized to recurring geopolitical headlines, macro sentiment entered a dulled phase lacking clear directional guidance, and overall shifted to neutral wait-and-see mode. Given that the macro front is currently in a vacuum period lacking substantive guidance, while spot fundamentals show weak support at high price levels, and the market lacks strong trending momentum, the SHFE tin price is expected to continue its wide-range fluctuating consolidation pattern in the near term. Investors should closely monitor subsequent developments in macro sentiment as well as downstream adaptation to and absorption of high prices.