Supply Deficit Sentiment Intensified, Iron Ore Showed Strong Performance [SMM Imported Ore Daily Brief]

Published: Apr 16, 2026 17:23

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Iron ore futures recovered today, with the most-traded contract I2609 closing at 782 yuan/mt, up 3.10% from the previous trading session. Spot prices rose 14-17 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Traders quoted actively, while steel mills purchased mainly based on rigid demand with few inquiries; overall spot cargo transactions were mediocre.
On fundamentals, an SMM survey showed that the weekly inventory survey of 10 sample ports indicated total inventory reached 115.48 million mt, down 460,000 mt WoW, with Jimblebar fines destocking being particularly notable. Demand side, short-term hot metal production stayed high, and steel mills still maintained certain profits, providing strong support for iron ore demand.

As restrictions on USD-denominated resources were lifted, market expectations of massive inventory release failed to materialize, easing resistance above. In addition, energy prices continued to climb, compounded by an unexpected shutdown at an Australian refinery, and the ongoing fermentation of sentiment over potential mine shutdowns due to diesel supply deficit leading to short-term supply tightens continued to form bullish factors for ore prices. Therefore, on a comprehensive basis, short-term ore prices are likely to hold up well.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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