Aluminum Alloy Futures Closed Higher Overnight, Spot Cargo Remained Stable [SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment]

4.14 SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment

Futures: The aluminum alloy 2606 contract opened at 23,760 yuan/mt during the night session. After opening, futures prices rose steadily, with prices running above the average price line throughout the session, showing a solid trend structure. Open interest increased slightly in sync, with sufficient volume support during the upward phase, and the price center continued to shift upward. The night session trading range was 23,695-23,920 yuan/mt. Prices moved sideways at highs near the close with no notable pullback. The daily candlestick ultimately closed at 23,890 yuan/mt, up 0.84% on the day.

Basis daily report: According to SMM data, on April 14, the SMM ADC12 spot price was at a theoretical premium of 870 yuan/mt over the closing price of the most-traded cast aluminum alloy contract (AD2606) at 10:15 AM.

Warrant daily report: SHFE data showed that on April 13, total registered warrants for cast aluminum alloy stood at 30,647 mt, an increase of 396 mt from the previous trading day. Specifically, Shanghai registered 1,912 mt (unchanged from the previous trading day), Guangdong 11,999 mt (unchanged), Jiangsu 3,877 mt (up 396 mt), Zhejiang 8,019 mt (unchanged), Chongqing 3,634 mt (unchanged), and Sichuan 1,206 mt (unchanged).

Aluminum scrap: Primary aluminum spot prices edged down from the previous trading day yesterday, and the aluminum scrap market followed suit. The tightening regulatory stance on the "reverse invoicing" policy remained unchanged, with compliance costs in the aluminum scrap recycling chain staying elevated and available invoiced supply remaining tight. Demand side, the divergence in shipments between aluminum tense scrap and wrought aluminum alloy scrap intensified. For aluminum tense scrap materials such as shredded aluminum tense scrap and ADC12 aluminum shavings, downstream scrap utilization enterprises including secondary alloy producers mostly maintained purchasing as needed with low inventory operations. For wrought aluminum alloy scrap materials such as baled UBC and 5-series/3-series plate off-cuts, downstream recycled aluminum plate/sheet and strip enterprises were in peak production season with relatively higher stockpiling enthusiasm. However, overall, high price levels combined with wild swings in aluminum prices continued to suppress the purchasing enthusiasm of scrap utilization enterprises. Price difference between A00 aluminum and aluminum scrap: the price difference between A00 aluminum and mixed aluminum extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan was recorded at 2,948 yuan/mt, and the price difference between A00 aluminum and shredded aluminum tense scrap was 1,658 yuan/mt.

Silicon metal: On April 13, SMM east China non-oxygen blown #553 was unchanged WoW; oxygen-blown #553 was unchanged WoW; #521 was unchanged WoW; #441 was down 50 yuan/mt WoW; #421 was down 100 yuan/mt WoW; #421 for silicone use was down 50 yuan/mt WoW; #3303 was unchanged WoW. Silicon prices in Tianjin were selectively lowered. Silicon prices in Xinjiang, Sichuan, Kunming, northwest China, Shanghai, and Huangpu Port remained stable.

Markets outside China: Current ex-China ADC12 quotes remained in the range of $3,300-3,340/mt. The instant import loss continued to hover around 2,000 yuan, and the theoretical import window remained closed.

Summary: On Monday, the ADC12 market overall operated with stable prices. Affected by primary aluminum prices moving sideways, cost-side drivers were limited, and enterprises generally lacked the willingness to actively adjust prices, mostly adopting a wait-and-see stance. Demand side, downstream purchasing maintained a rigid-demand pace, with no notable improvement in transaction performance, and the overall market trading sentiment remained subdued. Against the backdrop of weak supply and demand, and converging cost fluctuations, ADC12 prices are likely to continue to move sideways in the near term.

[Data source disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.]