Shanghai Copper Spot Market Expected to Stay Strong with Firm Premiums

Published: Apr 13, 2026 14:00
Looking ahead, the Shanghai copper spot market is expected to remain strong. Although some holders sold off part of their inventories at low prices during the day, this did not suppress the spot premium/discount; overall quotes stayed firm, reflecting strong support for the current premium. From the delivery logic, as the delivery date approaches, the inter-month Contango spread remains at a certain width, and holders' willingness to hold positions for delivery supports the spot premium. Additionally, tomorrow some holders may start making tentative quotes for the next-month contract, shifting market focus to post-rollover pricing. In summary, the spot premium over the 2604 contract for Shanghai copper is expected to remain.

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[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, tomorrow will be the last trading day of the SHFE copper 2604 contract. In accordance with the SMM #1 copper cathode price assessment methodology, SMM consistently quotes against the front-month contract. In terms of market structure, copper prices rose during the day, but the inter-month contango price spread between futures contracts maintained a certain width, and suppliers showed some willingness to hold prices firm. According to SMM, after copper prices returned above the 100,000 yuan/mt mark, orders from downstream enterprises declined notably, and demand-side support weakened somewhat. In addition, some suppliers had already begun making tentative offers against the next-month contract during the day. Since SMM consistently quotes against the front-month contract, based on the price spread conversion, the passive premium room after the contract rollover is limited. Spot prices against the front-month contract are expected to be at a slight premium or near parity tomorrow.
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