[SMM Analysis]Cobalt Prices Dipped in a Volatile Market, Amid Tight Raw Material Supply, as End-Users Waited Cautiously

Refined Cobalt:
Spot prices of refined cobalt continued to fluctuate downward this week, dragged by capital flows and macro sentiment. Supply side, mainstream smelters maintained stable ex-factory quotes; after spot prices moved lower, traders showed stronger willingness to hold prices firm, and the spot-futures price spread rebounded to above parity. Demand side, the pullback in prices slightly stimulated downstream procurement demand, but end-users remained cautious due to fluctuations in associated metal prices. The DRC announced an extension of the Q4 2025 cobalt intermediate product export quota, and uncertainty over intermediate product exports persisted. The structural tightness in China's raw material supply continued, providing bottom support for cobalt prices.

Cobalt Intermediate Products:
Cobalt intermediate product prices continued to run steadily this week, with the market remaining in a "quoted but not traded" state. Supply side, apart from the domestic miner quotes from last week, other suppliers maintained a bullish stance and held off on quoting, with available supplies remaining tight. Demand side, most smelters adopted a cautious procurement stance due to insufficient rebound momentum in cobalt salt prices, and actual transactions were scarce. Based on current shipping progress, the concentrated arrival of cobalt intermediate products at ports may be delayed to June-July. Once downstream orders materialize and restocking demand kicks in, intermediate product prices still have room to move higher. Subsequent attention should be paid to the DRC's export approval progress and the pace of downstream demand recovery.

Cobalt Sulphate:
Spot prices of cobalt sulphate moved sideways this week. Supply side, the raw material shortage pattern continued, underpinning smelter quotes, with the mainstream price range maintained at 95,000-98,000 yuan/mt; some recycling enterprises and traders continued to offer concessions for shipments due to capital turnover pressure, with individual quotes dipping to 90,000-93,000 yuan/mt, but such supplies were limited in volume, not enough to shake the mainstream price center. Demand side, market sentiment remained subdued, with downstream enterprises holding conservative expectations for subsequent orders, and current raw material inventory still at safe levels, leading to weak restocking willingness, with only sporadic purchases of low-priced supplies and insufficient overall transaction activity. In the short term, the market remained in a destocking phase, with sellers and buyers in a stagnant tug-of-war, and prices lacked breakthrough momentum. From a medium and long-term perspective, the uncertainty of DRC raw material supply provides bottom support on the cost side; once downstream inventory is effectively depleted and procurement demand recovers, cobalt sulphate prices are expected to see a corrective rebound.