Weak Aluminum Prices Weighed on the Market, and ADC12 Remained in the Doldrums [SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment]

4.7 SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy

Futures: Overnight, the most-traded cast aluminum alloy ad2606 contract closed at 23,585 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan from the previous trading day's close, or 0.17%. The night session formed a small bearish candlestick, with an extremely narrow body and short upper and lower shadows, a typical high-level sideways candlestick pattern with no clear directional guidance. The current VR value was 89.74, in the strong range of 80-150, indicating that overall market activity remained in place, but had pulled back sharply from the previous overbought zone above 200. Trading volume diverged from prices, and upward momentum was insufficient.

Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily: According to SMM data, on April 3, the theoretical premium of the SMM ADC12 spot price over the 10:15 closing price of the most-traded cast aluminum alloy contract (AD2606) was 950 yuan/mt.

Warrant Daily: SHFE data showed that on April 3, the total registered volume of cast aluminum alloy warrants was 31,636 mt, down 1,087 mt from the previous trading day. Of this, Shanghai totaled 1,942 mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; Guangdong totaled 12,479 mt, down 1,087 mt; Jiangsu totaled 3,632 mt, up 301 mt; Zhejiang totaled 8,743 mt, down 301 mt; Chongqing totaled 3,634 mt, unchanged; and Sichuan totaled 1,206 mt, unchanged.

Aluminum scrap: Last Friday, spot primary aluminum fell 120 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the aluminum scrap market generally followed lower and corrected. In terms of the price difference between A00 aluminum and aluminum scrap, on April 3, the price difference between A00 aluminum and mixed aluminum extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan was 3,155 yuan/mt, and the price difference between A00 aluminum and shredded aluminum tense scrap was 1,865 yuan/mt. The aluminum scrap market is expected to maintain its pace of consolidation at highs this week, with the mainstream range for shredded aluminum tense scrap (priced based on aluminum content) hovering at 19,800-20,500 yuan/mt (ex-tax). In the short term, close attention still needs to be paid to the impact of geopolitical conflicts on primary aluminum price fluctuations, the actual recovery of end-user orders, and the actual implementation progress of supply-side policies, with vigilance against the risk of wild swings in prices.

Silicon metal: On April 3, SMM east China non-oxygen blown #553 was unchanged from the previous day; oxygen-blown #553 was unchanged; #521 was unchanged; #441 was unchanged; #421 was unchanged; #421 for silicone use was unchanged; and #3303 was unchanged. Silicon prices in Kunming, Tianjin, the northwest, Sichuan, Shanghai, Xinjiang, and Huangpu Port were stable.

Summary: Spot side, the ADC12 market continued to fluctuate downward. Affected by the widening decline in aluminum prices, market sentiment turned cautious, and most enterprises lowered their offers; a few held prices steady and stayed on the sidelines with support from costs. Ahead of the Qingming Festival, downstream stocking demand fell short of expectations, with procurement still mainly driven by rigid demand, and transaction performance showed no obvious improvement. Coupled with market expectations of weakening demand in April, ADC12 prices still faced some downward pressure in the short term, and the market remained in the doldrums.

[Data Source Statement: Except for public information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.]