Middle East Conflict Disrupts Shipping, Spikes Global Costs and Insurance Premiums

Bank of England Governor Bailey sent a clearly dovish signal. He noted that given the current economic weakness, the central bank could tolerate inflation exceeding the 2% target for a period of time. This remark significantly lowered market expectations for a rate hike in June. However, Bailey also warned that once signs of second-round effects emerged, the central bank's tolerance for inflation would diminish accordingly.

The eurozone was facing a broad-based intensification of inflationary pressures. Specifically, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in France and Spain rose 2.8% and 3.6% YoY in May, respectively, both hitting their highest levels since 2024. Meanwhile, Italy's inflation rate climbed to 3.3%, reaching its peak since 2023, while Germany's core inflation also accelerated to 2.5%. Against this backdrop, ECB Governing Council member Simkus noted that a rate hike in June was almost a foregone conclusion, and that further rate hikes would "very likely" be needed thereafter.