Futures:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,904.5/mt. Repeated impacts from geopolitical tensions outside China intensified the effects of supply and energy factors on base metals. LME lead fluctuated upward throughout the day and gradually held firm above $1,900/mt, hitting an intraday high of $1,914.5/mt before finally closing at $1,912/mt at the end of the session, up 0.47%.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,510 yuan/mt. Bullish and bearish factors coexisted in the fundamental market, including lead ingot imports, expectations for production cuts in secondary lead, and the consumption off-season. Bulls and bears remained locked in a tug-of-war during the session, and SHFE lead fluctuated between 16,500-16,525 yuan/mt for an extended period, eventually closing at 16,510 yuan/mt, up 0.24%; its open interest fell by 961 lots from the previous trading day to 61,199 lots.
Macro:
Fed Chairman Powell released dovish signals, and the market again bet on the possibility of an interest rate cut within the year. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury fell nearly 8 basis points, while the 2-year yield dropped 8.6 basis points. Signs of a global US dollar shortage persisted, pushing the US dollar index up 0.34% for a fifth straight trading day of gains. The White House said Trump hoped to reach an agreement before April 6, intended to have Arab countries foot the bill, and that US-Iran talks were ongoing and progressing smoothly, while Iran denied the negotiations. Iran's parliament approved a bill to charge vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
:
Yesterday, in the spot lead market, SHFE lead remained in a consolidating pattern. Suppliers quoted prices in line with the market, with few warrant quotations, while imported lead was occasionally offered in circulation. At the same time, primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site maintained relatively high premiums, with mainstream producing areas quoted at premiums of 0-100 yuan/mt ex-works against the SMM #1 lead average price. On the secondary lead side, smelters held prices firm on shipments due to losses, and secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 0-75 yuan/mt ex-works against the SMM #1 lead average price. Downstream enterprises purchased as needed, with some engaging in more bargaining, and because procurement options were relatively abundant, transactions were relatively scattered.
Inventory: As of March 30, LME lead inventory fell 375 mt from the previous day to 283,000 mt; SMM social inventory of lead ingots across five regions continued to decline, but the pace of decline narrowed significantly.
Today's Lead Price Forecast:
Recently, production at primary lead and secondary lead smelters has resumed, leaving supply relatively ample. In addition, imported lead has continued to flow into China, with imported refined lead increasing. Downstream enterprises have had more procurement options, and transactions have been scattered, while the decline in lead ingot inventory in social warehouses has slowed markedly. Meanwhile, with April approaching, some medium- and large-sized secondary lead enterprises plan maintenance. If the maintenance proceeds as scheduled, it will support lead prices. Meanwhile, the lead-acid battery market is about to enter the traditional off-season, and expectations for lead consumption remain limited, so lead prices will continue to consolidate in the short term.
Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.
