SMM Tin Morning Briefing, March 31, 2026:
Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened slightly higher in the night session and then fluctuated downward, closing at 368,650 yuan/mt, up 1.12%.
Macro: (1) On March 30, the Shenzhen Municipal Commerce Bureau issued the Three-Year Action Plan of Shenzhen for Promoting the Improvement of Foreign Trade Quality and Efficiency — Special Measures for “Exports from Shenzhen.” It mentioned support for the import of advanced technology equipment and key parts required for the development of the “20+8” industrial clusters, guidance and assistance for enterprises in actively applying for national import interest subsidy support for technologies and products included in the Catalog of Technologies and Products Encouraged for Import, and the provision of one-on-one tax reduction and exemption guidance services for enterprises engaged in related frontier technology products. It will formulate customized regulatory measures for the import of important intermediate products needed for the development of industries such as integrated circuits and flat-panel display modules, so as to promote the efficient input of key materials and parts into R&D and production. It will also explore advancing pilot imports of used key parts for automotive R&D testing. (2) Powell’s remarks: ① The US Fed’s two current goals are in conflict. ② Policy is currently in a favorable position and can wait to observe how the current situation develops. ③ He is inclined to look through supply shocks, but inflation expectations must be monitored. ④ Tariff-driven inflation is a one-off price increase and will raise the inflation rate by 0.5 to 1 percentage point. ⑤ Current job growth is very slow. ⑥ Market pricing showed that during Powell’s remarks, bets on a US Fed rate hike were withdrawn and shifted to pricing in the possibility of an interest rate cut this year.
Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: In March, most smelters gradually resumed production and operations, ending their holiday status. (2) Demand side: Downstream procurement remained cautious. Downstream enterprises gradually began to resume production and operations, but orders were relatively mediocre.
Spot market: Transactions in the spot market were weak. Most downstream enterprises digested inventories, with wait-and-see sentiment dominating. Market trading turned subdued again, while suppliers generally maintained relatively high premiums. Downstream players remained mostly cautious in the face of high prices and fluctuations.
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