LME Lead Bottomed Out, While SHFE Lead Retreated After Rapid Rise and Consolidated [SMM Lead Morning Brief]

SMM News, March 26:

Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,909.5/mt. After the opening, prices fell rapidly, hitting a low of $1,899/mt. Entering the European session, LME lead fluctuated upward and touched a high of $1,920/mt. After repeated tug-of-war at high levels, it pulled back. Near the close, LME lead briefly consolidated at $1,908/mt and finally closed at $1,911.5/mt. It posted a small bullish candlestick, up $13/mt, or 0.68%.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,505 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices fluctuated higher, touching a high of 16,570 yuan/mt. Thereafter, lead prices plunged rapidly after 22:30, gradually falling below the key support level of 16,505 yuan/mt. Near the close, prices fluctuated rangebound in the 16,490-16,505 yuan/mt range, hitting a low of 16,480 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 16,490 yuan/mt. It posted a small bearish candlestick, down 5 yuan/mt, or 0.03%.

Supply side: Ex-works quotes from primary lead smelters remained stable, with mainstream producing areas quoting premiums of 30-120 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead price; secondary lead smelters held prices firm on shipments, and spot cargo in circulation tightened. Demand side: Downstream procurement sentiment diverged, with wait-and-see sentiment toward new-month long-term contracts coexisting with purchase as needed, while warrant cargoes were relatively more favored in transactions. SMM expects lead prices to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term, with downside supported by firm spot prices and limited room for decline; whether prices can break upward will require close tracking of downstream procurement and restocking pace.