SHFE Tin Stopped Falling and Rebounded with a 2.94% Gain as Macro Suppression and Bottom Support Pulled Against Each Other [SMM SHFE Tin Brief Comment]

On March 24, 2026, after a sustained decline in the prior period, SHFE and LME tin futures stabilized and moved sideways during the daytime session. The most-traded SHFE tin contract closed at 347,970 yuan/mt, up 2.94%; LME three-month tin was temporarily quoted at $43,950/mt, down 1.24%.

On the macro front, the US Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate unchanged at its March FOMC meeting, raised inflation expectations, and the dot plot indicated one more interest rate cut this year. However, Powell's cautious stance reinforced hawkish market pricing. US Treasury yields and the US dollar continued to rise, and tight dollar liquidity continued to suppress global risk appetite, weighing on US dollar-denominated non-ferrous metals.

China side, economic data for January-February 2026 showed a solid start: industrial value-added growth strengthened to 6.3% YoY from 5.2% in December last year, total retail sales growth rebounded to 2.8% YoY from 0.9%, and fixed asset investment growth turned positive at 1.8% YoY from -15.1%, with declines in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate investment all narrowing. During the Two Sessions, the policy front released positive signals, setting the core objective of "making efforts to stabilize the real estate market" and promoting high-quality development of the industry through targeted and pragmatic measures. It also emphasized that "intelligent manufacturing is an important manifestation of the AI era." China's manufacturing sector accounts for nearly one-third of the global total, and intelligent manufacturing serves as both a key pathway for industrial upgrading and an important lever for enhancing international competitiveness. The Chinese market encourages development to consolidate the foundation of domestic demand, but under current macro headwinds, futures remained under pressure and in the doldrums.

Spot side, market trading was relatively quiet today. After futures stabilized, downstream wait-and-see sentiment re-emerged, and purchase willingness was weak. Inventory side, SHFE tin warrants continued destocking. Although current inventory remained at a relatively high level, if the current digestion pace is maintained, continued destocking will provide certain support for the price floor.

In the short term, futures are expected to move sideways. Under macro headwinds, the tin price center may edge lower, but corrective rebounds after the prolonged decline will pull the price center. Going forward, attention should be focused on changes in macro sentiment, downstream procurement pace, and inventory digestion.