March 6 update:
North China ports: South African high-Fe 31.9-34 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday; South African semi-carbonate 38.2-38.7 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday; Gabon 43.3-43.9 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday; 46% Australian lumps 43.4-43.9 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday.
South China ports: South African high-Fe 33-33.5 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday; South African semi-carbonate 35.3-35.8 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday; Gabon 42-42.5 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday; 46% Australian lumps 43.4-43.9 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday.
The manganese ore market is currently cost-driven and holding up well, with South African ore leading the gains and a pronounced divergence between north and south China, with gains more notable in the north.
Supply side, mainstream overseas manganese ore mines raised their offers to China for March and April. In addition, in February, South Africa’s National Energy Regulator (NERSA) announced it had formally approved Eskom’s electricity price adjustment plan for the next two years: electricity prices will be raised by 8.76% in April this year and by another 8.83% in April 2027. With direct costs rising and expectations of higher import prices later on, miners’ offers remain firm. The current manganese ore market is characterized by “South African ore leading the gains, with other manganese ore following.”
Demand side, futures: downstream SiMn futures have held up well recently, and market sentiment is positive. Spot: after the Chinese New Year, downstream SiMn plants in north China maintained normal production schedules; in south China, alloy plants that have resumed operations have become more willing to accept higher manganese ore prices amid expectations of further gains, pushing up transaction prices for manganese ore.
Inventory: Tianjin Port: inventory at low-to-mid levels, with sufficient restocking ahead of the holiday, providing support to prices. Qinzhou Port: ongoing inventory buildup and inventory at high levels, with destocking pressure still in place.
In the short term, the manganese ore market features strong costs, weak fundamentals, and high expectations at the same time. Prices are more likely to rise than fall, with the north leading the gains; it is still necessary to track the pace of alloy plant restarts in south China, port destocking, and the implementation pace of manganese ore offers of overseas miners.
