Democratic Republic of Congo's Copper Exports Increase by Nearly 10%, LME Copper and SHFE Copper Close Sharply Lower Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Friday, February 13, 2026
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened and touched a high of $13,300/mt. After fluctuating downward at the beginning of the session, the center of copper prices moved straight down, then experienced wide swings, probing lower to $12,787/mt, and finally closed at $12,855/mt, a drop of 2.9%. Trading volume reached 22,100 lots, and open interest reached 322,000 lots, a decrease of 3,871 lots compared to the previous trading day, with the overall performance indicating long position reduction. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper contract 2603 opened at 102,030 yuan/mt, rose to a high of 102,350 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, then fluctuated rangebound. Subsequently, the center of copper prices pulled back straight down, touching a low of 99,400 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 100,030 yuan/mt, a drop of 2.58%. Trading volume reached 57,700 lots, and open interest reached 143,000 lots, a decrease of 4,515 lots compared to the previous trading day, with the overall performance indicating long position reduction.
[SMM Copper Morning Conference Minutes] News:
(1) On Wednesday, February 11, the DRC's copper exports in 2025 grew by nearly 10%. Government data showed the country's copper exports increased to 3.4 million mt in 2025 from 3.1 million mt the previous year, a rise of nearly 10%. Copper demand surged driven by the clean energy transition and the AI industry. Tight supply led to a 40% increase in copper prices over the past 12 months, with prices soaring to a historical high above $14,500/mt by the end of January. According to data released by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Chile's copper production in 2025 was 5.3 million mt, remaining the world's largest copper producer.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: During the morning session on February 12, the SHFE copper 2602 contract showed a W-shaped pattern. It opened at 102,090 yuan/mt, and the price declined after opening, probing a low of 101,640 yuan/mt. Subsequently, the price gradually rebounded from the low, repeatedly testing 102,270 yuan/mt. Then the price pulled back, probing a low of 101,940 yuan/mt before a slight rise. Overall, it fluctuated between 101,900 yuan/mt and 102,200 yuan/mt, and by the close, the price had risen to 101,950 yuan/mt. The Contango price spread between futures contracts for the deferred month was between 500 yuan/mt and 400 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for the current SHFE copper month was between a loss of 1,070 yuan/mt and 960 yuan/mt. Spot premiums/discounts are still expected to face downward pressure. As the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, market participation continues to decline, with most suppliers and downstream enterprises gradually entering the holiday period, leading to sluggish overall trading activity during the day. On the supply side, price-ratio locked cargoes secured during the previous period when the import window was open are continuously arriving at ports, resulting in significant inventory buildup in the Shanghai area during the day. On the demand side, due to the approaching holiday, downstream enterprises are generally on holiday, and procurement demand continues to weaken. Overall, the market is expected to maintain sluggish trading, and spot discounts are forecast to widen further tomorrow.
(2) Guangdong: On February 12, spot prices of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract were at a discount of 100 yuan/mt to a premium of 20 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 40 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 180 yuan/mt to 140 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 160 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 102,005 yuan/mt, up 830 yuan/mt from the previous day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,885 yuan/mt, up 780 yuan/mt. Overall, downstream consumers had largely completed restocking, but suppliers still held prices firm for shipments, resulting in sluggish overall trading.
(3) Imported Copper: On February 12, warrant prices were $26-42/mt, QP February, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $28-46/mt, QP March, with the average price flat from the previous day. EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $13-21/mt, QP March, with the average price flat from the previous day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in mid-to-late February.
(4) Secondary Copper: At 11:30 on February 12, the futures closing price was 101,950 yuan/mt, up 320 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was -60 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous day. The price of copper scrap rose 300 yuan/mt MoM yesterday. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 89,800-90,000 yuan/mt, up 300 yuan/mt from the previous day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,099 yuan/mt, down 19 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,385 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, secondary copper rod enterprises and copper scrap yards had almost entirely entered the Chinese New Year holiday, with a few enterprises starting their holidays by tomorrow at the latest.
Prices: On the macro front, Trump stated that the US and Iran must reach an agreement or face a severe situation, while Netanyahu expressed optimism. Meanwhile, the US Treasury Secretary used a Senate investigation into Powell as a condition to advance the nomination of a new Fed chair. At the same time, as the long Chinese New Year holiday approached, bulls took profits and risk-off sentiment intensified, putting copper prices under pressure. On the fundamentals side, imported and domestic supplies arrived at ports successively, leading to looser overall market supply. Demand side, during the last few trading days before the holiday, market trading atmosphere was weak with low turnover. Overall, as today was the last trading day before the holiday, copper prices were expected to fluctuate rangebound.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]