Weekly iron ore port arrivals increase, ore prices fluctuate rangebound at low levels [SMM Commentary]

Today, the DCE iron ore futures market opened with a bias towards stronger fluctuations, pulled back in the afternoon, and operated in the doldrums the day before yesterday. The most-traded contract I2509 eventually closed at 703, down 0.71% for the day. Traders sold goods in line with market conditions; steel mills adopted a cautious wait-and-see attitude, focusing on purchasing as needed. The market transaction atmosphere was average. The mainstream transaction prices of PB fines in Shandong region ranged from 723 to 728 yuan/mt, dropping slightly by 5 yuan/mt from last Friday's prices; the transaction prices of PB fines in Tangshan region hovered around 740-745 yuan/mt, also dropping slightly by 5 yuan/mt from last Friday's prices.

SMM shipping data showed that last week, SMM's total global iron ore shipments reached 36.06 million mt, increasing by 1.09 million mt WoW. Among them, shipments from Australia and non-mainstream countries increased, but Brazil's shipments declined slightly; among non-mainstream countries, South Africa's shipments surged. SMM's total iron ore arrivals in China reached 27.62 million mt, up 2.21 million mt WoW. Iron ore supply has increased somewhat, putting pressure on ore prices. However, from the perspective of May's import data, iron ore imports declined MoM in May, and port inventory remains in a state of destocking. Therefore, the supply-demand imbalance in iron ore is relatively small, and ore prices do not have the conditions for a significant drop, with short-term low-level rangebound fluctuations expected to dominate.

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