Amid the tariff storm, copper prices in the US hit a historic high, and institutions predict that the era of copper shortage may have begun.

During the New York session on Tuesday, March 25, US copper futures prices continued to rise, surpassing the previous historical high recorded in May last year.

As of press time, the main continuous copper futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) surged by more than 2.5%, reaching a high of $5.2255/lb, exceeding the record of $5.199 set on May 20. Since the beginning of the year, US copper prices have accumulated a gain of nearly 30%, compared to increases of only 1.87% and 3.39% in the previous two years.

Daily chart of the main continuous copper futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange

Media analysis suggests that the main reason for the surge in copper prices is the potential imposition of hefty tariffs on imported copper by the Trump administration. Sources in the shipping industry revealed last week that US ports would be overwhelmed by a flood of imported copper as traders rush to ship goods before the tariffs take effect.

A month ago, Trump signed an executive order to initiate a trade investigation into whether to impose additional tariffs on imported copper products. He also stated on social media that he had instructed the US Secretary of Commerce and the Trade Representative to conduct a study on trade related to copper imports to revitalize the US copper industry.

Trump stated that US industry relies on copper, and tariffs would help rebuild the US copper industry and strengthen national defense, emphasizing that copper should be made in the US. He also mentioned multiple times that "reciprocal tariffs" would officially take effect next Wednesday, April 2. Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and other major banks expect the US to announce a 25% import tax on copper within the year.

Due to the flow of copper, US copper prices have become unprecedentedly disconnected from the global benchmark prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME). On Monday, the gap between NYMEX and LME prices hit a record high of more than $1,400/mt.

Matt Schwab, Head of Investor Solutions at hedge fund Quantix Commodities, stated in a media interview, "The uncertainty of tariffs, especially when they will be implemented," should keep the price spread at a high level.

Dan Smith, Head of Research at Amalgamated Metal Trading, pointed out that the widening price spread between NYMEX and LME longer-term contracts indicates that "expectations for tariffs are rising."

Kostas Bintas, Head of Metal Trading at Mercuria, estimated that about 500,000 mt of copper is heading to the US, which would lead to a severe shortage of copper supply in other global markets. As the shortage worsens, LME copper prices could also jump to more than $12,000/mt.

To learn more about the dynamics of the copper industry chain, you are welcome to attend the CCI 2025 SMM (20th) Copper Industry Conference and Copper Industry Expo, hosted by SMM, which will be held grandly in Nanchang, Jiangxi from April 22-25, 2025.

Over 3,000 industry elites, representatives from upstream and downstream enterprises in the copper industry chain, government officials, industry associations, third-party equipment, logistics and warehousing, and academic experts will gather together. The conference covers mines, smelting, copper processing, trade, recycling, and end-use applications, encompassing the entire copper industry chain. At the conference, more than 100 exhibitors will showcase the latest copper processing and smelting equipment, high-quality raw material suppliers, and new-type copper-based materials, highlighting the innovation and vitality of the copper industry. The conference features a variety of exciting activities: the main forum focuses on global copper market trends, raw material supply, policy impact analysis, and market direction interpretation. Sub-forums delve into industry hot topics such as electrical power transmission and distribution, secondary copper, copper-based new materials, hardware and plumbing, and ESS. During the conference, there will also be a two-day field trip to visit 12 representative enterprises in the copper industry, with a cumulative capacity of 1 million mt, to share cutting-edge technologies and valuable experiences, helping to upgrade the copper industry chain and promote high-quality industry development.

The CCI 2025 SMM (20th) Copper Industry Conference and Copper Industry Expo will help you grasp the industry pulse, expand your network, and seek business opportunities! SMM cordially invites you to gather in Nanchang, Jiangxi from April 22-25, to unite in the new era of copper and jointly plan for new development!