Antimony, Bismuth, and Cobalt Prices Continue to Rise; Minor Metal Sector Gains for Three Consecutive Days, With Dongfang Zirconium and CMOC Leading the Increases [SMM Newsflash]

SMM March 10 News:

Driven by the continuous rise in spot prices of antimony, bismuth, and cobalt, stocks related to the minor metal sector remained active. The minor metal sector has risen for three consecutive trading days. As of the close on March 10, the sector was up 1.05%. In terms of individual stocks: Orient Zirconium hit the daily limit, CMOC rose 8.62%, while Beifang Rare Earth, Yunnan Germanium, Yongshan Lithium, and Jinduicheng Molybdenum also posted significant gains.

Spot Market

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Antimony Spot Market:

On March 10, the average price of SMM #1 antimony ingot was 164,000 yuan/mt, up 3,000 yuan/mt or 1.86% from last Friday's average price. Last week, antimony prices continued to rise as manufacturers, driven by a reluctance to sell, kept raising their quotes. Speculative funds were also actively participating in standing firm on quotes, with a clear intention from suppliers to maintain high prices, and bullish sentiment dominated the market. However, the domestic antimony end-use market showed mixed performance. Many manufacturers reported weak consumption orders, with downstream sectors such as flame retardants and PV showing low buying interest and poor orders. Nevertheless, rigid orders were forced to follow the price increases. This resulted in a faster rise in antimony ingot prices compared to antimony oxide prices. Market expectations for tighter export controls also contributed to cautious attitudes toward future price trends in the midstream and downstream markets. Despite this, antimony market prices continued to rise significantly under the collective effort of suppliers to maintain high prices. Some market participants noted that current antimony prices have reached the 2024 peak. While further increases in antimony ingot prices cannot be ruled out, the lack of significant improvement in demand, particularly the potential decline in PV demand, leaves the extent of future price increases and resistance uncertain.

Bismuth Spot Market:

On March 10, refined bismuth was quoted at 145,000-147,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 146,000 yuan/mt, up 10,000 yuan/mt or 7.35% from last Friday. Last week, bismuth market prices rose strongly, with an even stronger trend in the latter half of the week. Manufacturers continued to raise bismuth prices, and transaction prices steadily increased. Notably, recent reports indicated a significant rise in overseas bismuth prices. For instance, in the European market, bismuth ingot prices reportedly surged, with transaction prices reaching around $9.5/lb and quotes as high as $12-15/lb. The rise in overseas prices positively impacted the domestic bismuth market, providing strong confidence support. As bismuth prices strengthened significantly last week, speculative buying interest also grew. Caution is advised regarding the potential impact of dissipating speculative sentiment on bismuth prices.

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Cobalt Spot Market:

Since February 25, cobalt prices have surged following news of a cobalt export suspension in the DRC. As of March 10, the average price of refined cobalt reached the milestone of 220,000 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, on the supply side, strong cobalt prices have led to high operating rates at refined cobalt smelters, ensuring sufficient market supply. On the demand side, downstream inquiries were active, with limited transactions following. Market sentiment remained optimistic about price increases, and refined cobalt smelters showed a strong reluctance to sell, pushing spot quotes higher. It is expected that challenges in raw material procurement will continue to dominate the market, and SMM anticipates further price increases for cobalt this week.

Institutional Insights

CICC's research report analyzed the antimony market in light of Polar Gold's earnings report. On March 5, Polar Gold released its 2024 annual report, showing antimony production of 12,700 mt, down 53% YoY. In 2H24, antimony production was 4,056 mt, down 70% YoY and 53% QoQ. CICC predicts that Polar Gold's antimony supply may shrink significantly in 2025, exacerbating the tight supply situation. The combined effect of domestic and overseas demand and reduced imports is expected to push domestic antimony prices to record highs. The reduction in imported ore and sustained demand growth are likely to further boost domestic antimony prices. In the long term, the growth in new PV installations and the increasing penetration of double-glass modules are expected to drive demand for antimony in PV glass. The implementation of the trade-in policy is also expected to increase antimony demand in the flame retardant sector. CICC estimates that the antimony supply-demand gap for 2025-2027 will be -28,000 mt, -25,000 mt, and -29,000 mt, accounting for -18%, -15%, and -18% of demand, respectively, indicating a persistently tight supply-demand balance and a potential upward shift in antimony price levels. Risks include higher-than-expected overseas supply, weaker-than-expected export improvements, and greater-than-expected substitution of downstream antimony demand.

Minmetals Securities believes that tight domestic raw material supply driving price increases is the inevitable result of the widening price spread between domestic and overseas markets. The gradual ramp-up of overseas smelting capacity warrants attention. In December 2024 alone, Thailand, Japan, the US, and the EU collectively imported nearly 1,200 mt of antimony ingots from Myanmar, a 345% increase compared to the January-August monthly average of 268 mt.

According to Huaxi Securities researcher Rong Yan, China's bismuth production has accounted for about 80% of global output over the past 25 years. Factors such as China's bismuth production, export trade policies, environmental protection inspections, and capital speculation all influence global bismuth ore prices. Currently, bismuth inventory remains substantial. According to data from Zhonglianjin's official account on March 6, 2025, warehouse warrant inventory for bismuth reached 14,502 mt, nearly equivalent to China's annual production.