China's passenger vehicle retail sales forecasted to grow YoY despite MoM drop: CPCA

Shanghai (Gasgoo)- China's passenger vehicle retail sales are estimated to reach 1.25 million units in February 2024, reflecting a 13.6% year-on-year (YoY) growth but a 30.3% decline from January, according to the preliminary data from the China Passenger Car Association ("CPCA").

Of those, new energy vehicle (NEV) sales are expected to hit 600,000 units in the month, bringing the NEV penetration rate back to 48%.

For clarity, the passenger vehicles hereby refer to cars, MPVs, and SUVs locally produced on the Chinese Mainland.

The earlier timing of the 2025 Chinese New Year meant that only the first week and the beginning of the second week in February were directly impacted by the holiday. However, post-holiday production and sales quickly returned to normal, with February having 19 effective working days, more than last year. This provided strong support for market growth. Additionally, new round of vehicle trade-in subsidies across provinces and the resurgence of NEV demand after the holiday further accelerated market recovery.

A breakdown of February's retail sales performance shows fluctuations across the weeks:

Week 1 (1st-9th, Feb.): With nearly half of the period falling within the official holiday, daily retail sales averaged 26,500 units, down 30.8% YoY and 38.5% from January.

Week 2: As businesses resumed operations, the market rebounded, with daily sales reaching 48,900 units, up 91.2% YoY (due to a low base from last year's holiday) but down 17.4% from January.

Week 3: The recovery continued, with daily retail sales estimated at 56,700 units, marking a 53.5% YoY surge but a 22% decline from the same period of the previous month.

Week 4: With five working days, end-of-month deliveries are expected to boost sales to 54,300 units per day, down 15.3% YoY and 9.7% month-over-month.