SMM, February 17:
As of Monday, February 17, copper inventories in major regions across China tracked by SMM increased by 24,100 mt WoW to 350,300 mt. Total inventories rose by 184,500 mt compared to the pre-holiday level of 165,800 mt, with Shanghai up by 102,000 mt, Guangdong up by 48,200 mt, and Jiangsu up by 34,100 mt from the same period before the holiday.
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Specifically, inventories in Shanghai increased by 17,000 mt WoW to 206,400 mt, driven by significant arrivals of both imported and domestic copper over the weekend. Inventories in Jiangsu rose by 400 mt WoW, as downstream enterprises gradually resumed production, leading to a smaller inventory increase over the weekend. Guangdong inventories increased by 6,800 mt to 73,700 mt, as consumption in the region weakened. This is reflected in the pullback of Guangdong's daily outflows from warehouses from highs, while arrivals before delivery increased significantly.
Looking ahead, smelter shipments are expected to decrease after delivery, but imported copper arrivals will continue. Warehouse arrivals this week are expected to decline compared to last week. Meanwhile, downstream demand is expected to keep increasing. According to our survey, the weekly operating rate of copper cathode rod production is expected to rise to 73.24% this week, up by 11.14 percentage points WoW. Therefore, we anticipate a scenario of reduced supply and increased demand this week, with inventories likely to see a slight decrease.
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