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After a slight correction in copper prices during the week, the rally turned aggressive, with the SHFE copper 2502 contract surpassing 78,000 yuan/mt on Friday, marking a new high since 2025. However, as copper prices surged sharply, orders in the spot market weakened, and spot purchasing sentiment also declined. Observing the price spread between the SHFE copper 2502 and 2503 contracts, it fluctuated around Contango 200 yuan/mt. Suppliers showed a clear sentiment to stand firm on quotes, resulting in spot quotes being close to parity in the first half of the week, with little room for significant discounts. In the latter half of the week, as the delivery of the SHFE copper 2502 contract approached, the current warehouse warrant inventory could not match the open interest. Considering the significant Contango price spread, suppliers stood firm on quotes, raising them to a premium on Friday. Next week, the spot market will primarily shift to quoting against the SHFE copper 2503 contract. Although domestic copper cathode inventories are still building up, considering the export opportunities brought by the sharp rise in overseas copper prices, domestic smelters may plan for exports to reduce domestic shipments. Furthermore, before the full release of delivery warehouse warrants, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2503 contract are expected to remain at a discount of around 100 yuan/mt, with limited room for larger discounts.
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