January Copper Anode Operating Rate Declines; Post-Holiday Scrap-Using Enterprises' Production Is Expected to Rebound Rapidly [SMM Analysis]

SMM, February 13:

    According to SMM, the operating rate of copper anode producers in January 2025 was 52.26%, down 2.94 percentage points MoM. By raw material, the operating rate of copper anode producers using ore was 81.87% (up 6.89 percentage points MoM), while that of copper anode producers using scrap was 33.82% (down 9.06 percentage points MoM). (This refers only to copper anodes not used for self-consumption.)

    In January 2025, the operating rate of domestic copper anode producers using ore increased mainly due to some producers resuming production after maintenance, while most others maintained stable production levels. The operating rate of copper anode producers using scrap dropped significantly as most producers halted production around January 22 and 23 for the holiday. However, in mid-January, the rise in the center of copper prices boosted the sentiment of secondary copper raw material suppliers, and downstream smelters had strong stocking demand for copper anodes before the holiday. As a result, the operating rate of copper anode producers using scrap in January exceeded expectations.

    SMM expects the overall operating rate of copper anode producers in February 2025 to decrease by 0.58 percentage points MoM to 51.68%. Among them, the operating rate of copper anode producers using ore is expected to be 74.74% (down 7.13 percentage points MoM), while that of copper anode producers using scrap is expected to rise to 37.32% (up 3.5 percentage points MoM).

    The operating rate of copper anode producers using ore is expected to pull back in February due to two factors: the commissioning of refining capacity by some producers, which will convert their copper anode production into copper cathode, and the shorter production cycle in February. The operating rate of copper anode producers using scrap is expected to rebound as copper prices continue to rise, secondary copper raw material supply increases, and most producers resume production after the February 5 and February 13 periods, quickly entering production rhythm. Therefore, the operating rate of copper anode producers using scrap is expected to rise rapidly after mid-February.

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